Bitcoin Could Continue Chopping Below $95K Into Year-End and Altcoins Could Benefit, Analyst Says

Bitcoin BTC$92,180.45 reversed its overnight climb to $94,000, dipping back to $92,000 during U.S. hours Thursday, continuing choppy rangebound action after the wild moves first lower, than higher earlier int he week.

Ethereum’s ether ETH$3,126.92 held up relatively well, down only 0.7% on the day and changing hands above $3,100 in the afternoon hours. Among altcoins, XRP$2.0970, Hedera (HBAR), BCH$574.70 and privacy-oriented Zcash ZEC$358.01 led the downside with 4%–5% declines, while the broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index was 2% lower.

Despite the pullback, BTC continues to hold well above the support level established around $85,000 earlier this week, suggesting markets may be settling into a holding pattern as liquidity thins heading into year-end, Paul Howard, senior director of trading firm Wincent said in a note.

“We continue to see cryptocurrency prices closely correlated with global macroeconomic events,” said Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent. “While December is typically a low-liquidity month, we observe a higher floor has been set the past seven days around the $85,000 level.”

Without major new macro headlines, Howard expects more rangebound trading between $85,000 and $95,000 for the rest of the month. “There’s potential for some outperformance in altcoins, which typically do well in a low-liquidity, higher-volatility environment,” he added.

On the macro front, markets are entering December with eyes on the U.S. Federal Reserve and, more crucially, the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

According to Mark Connors, founder and chief macro strategist of bitcoin investment advisory Risk Dimensions, the BoJ’s rate decision is the “key event” this month, as it determines the future of the yen-funded carry trade, a strategy where investors borrow in yen to buy higher-yielding assets.

If the BoJ holds rates steady, as Connors expects, it could reignite demand for risk assets and provide a tailwind to equities, bitcoin and gold.