Donald Trump has made noises about pulling out of a Sept. 10 debate with opponent Kamala Harris, but traders on Polymarket apparently reckon it’s just that – noise.
“Yes” shares for “Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept. 10?” were trading at 84 cents midday Tuesday in New York, indicating the market sees an 84% chance he will go through with it. The bets are written into a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain: Each share pays out $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that usually trades 1:1 for dollars) if the prediction comes true, and zilch if not.
The contract was published Monday and the odds briefly dipped to as low as 72%, but have mostly traded in the 80s.
To be sure, the amount staked on the question is small – $22,000 – paling in comparison with Polymarket’s contract on who will win the election, which has amassed hundreds of millions in bets. The odds there gave Trump a slight lead at the time of writing.
On Sunday, Trump indicated he was wavering on whether to participate in the debate because he believed ABC News, the host, is biased against him.
“Why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?” he wrote.
Polymarket bettors mostly doubt the candidates’ microphones will be muted during the debate, with a 40% probability. According to The Wall Street Journal, the question of whether to mute mics has been a sticking point in negotiations. “The Harris campaign has said both microphones should be live, while the Trump campaign has pushed to keep the microphones muted like they were during a June debate on CNN between Trump and President Biden,” the newspaper reported.
Again, at less than $7,000, there is relatively little money riding on the microphone bet on a platform that saw a record $414 million in volume last month, according to Dune Analytics data.
Another important caveat is that under a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket is required to block U.S. users, so those making forecasts on the platform are presumably analyzing data from afar.
On the other hand, the fact that these punters are putting up any money at all carries some weight. They have an incentive to do thorough research or risk taking a financial hit.
On Kalshi, a regulated U.S. platform where trades are settled in dollars, bettors are giving 47% odds that there will be three presidential debates before election day, 42% for two, 11% for one, and a 2% probability of none.