Live markets: Bitcoin jumps above $66,000 as short squeeze builds on US-Iran deal hopes

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reiterated his long-term bullish stance on bitcoin, describing it as “the new digital gold” and an increasingly important part of the global economy. Armstrong also suggested that bitcoin may have already found a bottom near the $60,000 level, based on his instincts about current market conditions.

In a post on X, Armstrong wrote: “I’m as bullish as ever on Bitcoin, and still long (as always). It’s never as good or bad as it seems.”

He accompanied the post with a chart illustrating bitcoin’s four-year cycle, a market pattern historically tied to bitcoin’s halving events, which occur roughly every four years and reduce the rate of new supply entering circulation. Previous cycles have typically seen bitcoin reach a peak about 12 to 18 months after a halving, followed by a prolonged correction before establishing a cyclical bottom.

With bitcoin reaching a record high of around $126,000 in October, historical cycle analysis would suggest a potential market bottom could emerge sometime around September or October 2026.

Following the announcement of a U.S., Iran peace agreement, both risk assets and haven investments have rallied. Bitcoin climbed to $66,000, gold surged more than 2.5% to trade above $4,300, and the Invesco QQQ ETF rose more than 2% in Monday pre-market trading.

Crypto-related equities also advanced. Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, rose 6%, Galaxy Digital (GLXY) added 5% and SpaceX (SPCX) climbed 6%.

AI-focused bitcoin miners are participating in the rally. Both TerraWulf (WULF) and Cipher Mining (CIFR) added 4%, and IREN (IREN) is higher by 5%.

Traders have put more than $78 million into bitcoin price prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi for 2026, and the crowd is not pricing a breakout, even after the US-Iran peace deal landed Monday.

Polymarket’s June market, with about $15.6 million in volume, puts the most likely recovery point at $67,500 with 70% odds. A move to $72,500 carries 18% odds. The $100,000 target for June sits below 1%. On the downside, bettors give a $55,000 floor an 8% chance.

Kalshi’s June market tells the same story with different numbers. Traders there put a 14% probability on bitcoin crossing $75,000 before June 30, falling to 9% for $77,500 and 5% for $80,000.

The year-end picture is similarly muted. Kalshi’s December market, drawing $25.8 million in volume, has the consensus sitting near $66,000, with the probability distribution bunched in the $50,000 to $55,000 range. Polymarket gives $100,000 by year-end only 19% odds and $150,000 just 4% to 7%.

The US and Iran reached an interim deal to halt the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, removing the macro weight that has pressed on crypto for weeks. Oil fell hard and equities jumped, while bitcoin moved only a little.

Brent crude dropped more than 4% toward $83, a three-month low, with the strait that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil set to reopen on June 19. Asian shares climbed more than 3%, and Japan’s Nikkei headed for a record close. Bitcoin trades near $65,000, up modestly over the weekend and still inside its recent $63,000 to $65,000 range, per CoinDesk data.

Traders may remember that bitcoin has been here before. A ceasefire in April fell apart, and US strikes broke another truce on June 9, each time clawing back the relief rally.

Traders are not pricing a permanent deal until the June 19 signing in Switzerland holds. The deal is interim, as sanctions are unresolved and Trump has said he could restart strikes if nuclear talks fail.

The bigger channel for crypto runs through inflation, not the headline.

Cheaper oil eases the price pressure that pushed central banks toward tighter policy. Meanwhile the Bank of Japan decides tomorrow, and a softer inflation backdrop could blunt the hawkish tilt that revived the yen carry-trade risk.

That is the path that would actually pull liquidity back toward crypto.