Markets cheer U.S.-Iran Breakthrough though Middle East risks, Fed remain in focus

Keep in mind too, that on June 17, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh presides over his first FOMC meeting. Markets are currently pricing a 97% probability the Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.

Following the sharp decline in oil prices, investors are no longer pricing in any interest-rate increases this year. Expectations for the next 25 basis-point increase have been pushed back to January 2027. That may change if the situation in the Middle East becomes murkier. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

• For real this time? U.S., Iran peace deal at hand (CNBC): The U.S. and Iran have gotten the furthest yet in their efforts to end their war, with President Donald Trump saying that Washington and Tehran have agreed on a peace deal to be signed on June 19. The deal will see the Strait of Hormuz opened and the U.S. naval blockade lifted.
• Oil prices hit three-month lows on US-Iran agreement (CNN): Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 5% to $82.91 a barrel shortly after 5 a.m. ET, having settled Friday at its lowest level since March 5, the first week of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran. WTI crude also fell to its lowest since early March.
• Bitcoin traders have a reason to watch Tuesday’s BOJ rate decision. Yen shorts are at a nine-year high (CoinDesk): A large build-up of speculative short positions in the yen raises the risk of a sharp short squeeze if the Bank of Japan signals more aggressive tightening, potentially unwinding yen-funded carry trades that support risk assets.
• Here’s what SpaceX’s IPO means for its $1.3 billion bitcoin reserve (CoinDesk): The largest company on public markets now holds bitcoin as a treasury reserve, not as a business model. Its first earnings cycles will test which version of corporate crypto survives a bear market.

The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price change along with its Fibonnaci levels and relative strength index (RSI).

The price rebounded from a support level of $60,000 — set at the 0.618 Fibonnaci retracement — but even at its current $65,600 remains in a broader downtrend described by a series of lower highs.

The RSI is weak at 37 and a weekly close above $66,000 would signal a tentative reclaim. Failure to reach that level, however, still leaves $60,000 exposed. If it does make the break, the next resistance level is positioned at $68,900, and then $80,000-$82,500.