Pricing houses in bitcoin exposes dollar’s loss of value

Decades of monetary expansion have stoked inflation that has lingered above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for more than five years, diluting the dollar’s value. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins and transparent issuance schedule, serves as a neutral yardstick that exposes this debasement.

Of course, this optical effect isn’t exclusive to bitcoin. Measuring house prices in terms of gold, the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks or the broader Nasdaq equity index would also point to fiat dilution in varying degrees.

But for now, the message is clear. BTC’s long-term appeal as an inflation hedge remains strong despite its price halving in value to $63,000 since October last year.

Near-term recovery prospects in the bitcoin price depend on the return of demand for ETFs, especially BlackRock’s IBIT, widely considered a proxy for institutional demand. The fund has pulled in over $200 million this week, ending a record streak of outflows worth billions of dollars. The trend, however, needs to continue. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Two blockbuster AI IPOs on the horizon could leave crypto further behind (CoinDesk): SK Hynix is gearing up for its blockbuster IPO on July 10. China’s Changxin Memory Technologies, the country’s largest maker of DRAM memory chips, will begin book building on July 15.
• U.S. military carries out fresh strikes on Iran, prompting Iran attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain (Reuters): The U.S. military launched fresh strikes on Iran to keep the Strait of ‌Hormuz open to shipping, triggering Iranian attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain in the latest escalation to derail efforts to end the war.
• World shares are mixed and oil prices slip after Iran and US launch fresh attacks (AP): World shares were mixed and oil prices slipped on Thursday as conflict escalated in the Middle East. U.S. futures were little changed.
• Sony secures conditional approval to set up U.S. stablecoin trust bank (CoinDesk): Sony’s online banking unit said it received conditional approval to establish a U.S. national trust bank subsidiary to support the issuance and management of dollar-denominated stablecoins.

The chart shows swings in the yield on a 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed security (commonly known as TIPS). This is the bond market’s representation of the 10-year real, or inflation-adjusted, return.

The yield has risen to 2.30%, the highest since January 2025, adding 58 basis points since the onset of the Iran war in late February.

This hardening of the real yield means investors can earn 2.3% even after taking inflation into account. As such, it raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and bitcoin.