The marginal bitcoin seller may be done liquidating, analysts say
Analysts point to bitcoin’s resilience amid fresh U.S.-Iran escalation and renewed spot ETF inflows as the clearest signs yet that the marginal seller has stepped away.
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback
Jul 13, 2026, 3:49 p.m.
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Summary
After bitcoin’s BTC$62,290.65 28% slump this year, there are signs the wave of panic selling that has weighed on the market for months may finally be coming to an end.
The first is that bitcoin’s price held steady over the weekend even as U.S.-Iran hostilities escalated and crude prices spiked on Hyperliquid. That solidity contrasts with March and April, when similar escalations between the two nations and oil rallies sent the largest cryptocurrency sliding.
“BTC held $62k through rounds of US airstrikes and a Hormuz closure, barely flinching. The weak hands look gone,” said Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, said in an email.
The second sign comes from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Last week, they pulled in a net $197.40 million of investor money, the first net inflows after eight straight weeks of outflows.
“The eight-week ETF outflow streak broke. One turn, not a trend, but the marginal seller is drying up,” De Mare noted, referring to investors willing to sell even as the price drops, eroding their profits. Once the marginal seller leaves the market, there’s nothing left for buyers at that price.
Dessislava Ianeva, an analyst at Nexo, made a similar point in an email to CoinDesk.
“ETF flows confirm it from another angle. The past ten days split between inflow and outflow, netting slightly positive,” Ianeva said.
“Glassnode data shows spot selling pressure has faded. June’s net selling averaged nearly 2,000 BTC a day; July’s has slowed to just 53 BTC a day, the calmest month of 2026 outside April.”
The relative calm, however, may not indicate a rapid turnaround.
The price recovery from the year’s low of $57,700, hit earlier this month, is largely driven by derivatives traders and not spot buyers, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro’s chief market analyst.
“Demand for Bitcoin is recovering rapidly, though the growth is currently being driven mainly by retail traders in the speculative futures market. At the same time, the situation in the spot market remains less positive,” he said.
Without a strong return of buy-side liquidity, prices could remain in a sideways trend for months to come, he said.
Caution is understandable ahead of macroeconomic data that may influence interest-rate decisions and the appetite for risk.
U.S. CPI for June is scheduled for release Tuesday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Congressional testimony is due this week. These events could influence the market trajectory and make, or break, the recovery.
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5 hours ago
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
Why it matters:
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.