Fed holds rates steady, extending pause as markets await Kevin Warsh’s policy roadmap

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark fed funds rate range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, extending its pause for a sixth consecutive meeting as policymakers continue to grapple with stubborn inflation.

“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” the policy statement read.

“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong,” the statement added. “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”

There were three committee members dissenting, preferring to raise rates by 25 basis points. Nine voted to keep policy in place.

Bitcoin climbed to above $64,400 following the decision, up over 1% over the past 24 hours. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounced, trimming earlier declines. Gold also rose, up 1.2% through the day.

The decision came after one of the most uncertain pre-meeting setups in years. Futures markets had assigned roughly a 65% probability to a hold and 35% odds of a quarter-point increase, according to CME FedWatch data.

It was an unusual setup, as for years, the Fed had typically tried to communicate to markets the direction it was going to take on policy

Attention now turns to Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting press conference. Warsh has been openly critical of the Fed’s traditional use of forward guidance and the quarterly “dot plot,” and investors will be watching closely for signs that the central bank’s communication strategy is changing under his leadership.

UPDATE (July 29, 18:10 UTC): Adds quotes from Fed statement, market reaction.