XRP on the brink of a golden cross as focus switches to altcoins

Payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP (XRP) is on the verge of flashing a major bullish signal as bitcoin’s share of the crypto market drops and traders look to alternative coins.

That signal is the golden cross, and it could soon appear on XRP’s price charts.

A golden cross is confirmed when an asset’s 50-day moving average crosses above its 200-day average. It is widely viewed by chart analysts as a bullish long-term signal. The pattern has often delivered on that promise across many markets, including bitcoin, which recently confirmed its own golden cross.

So, in theory, XRP’s impending golden cross points to the potential for solid price gains. History, however, suggests caution. For XRP in particular, the golden cross has not been a reliable long-term predictor of sustained upside.

In fact, none of the 16 previous golden crosses lasted even 12 months and were quickly terminated by a death cross which, as the name suggests, is something of an alternative, bearish arrangement of moving averages.

That said, many of those golden crosses did produce impressive three-month gains (check Today’s Signal). Five of the 10 crosses that survived long enough to reach the three-month mark posted gains ranging from 85% to more than 1,000%, including a 1,009.6% run following the April 2017 cross and a 135% gain after the February 2021 cross.

Right now, XRP’s 50-day average sits about 2% below its 200-day average, the closest since its last golden cross in August 2024.

Meanwhile, analysts are optimistic about bitcoin’s

BTC$78,008.88

price prospects, given the cryptocurrency has weathered this week’s storm, marked by the Clarity Act setback and a Federal Reserve rate increase. The cryptocurrency is trading near $78,000, roughly unchanged from a week ago.

But its dominance rate, or share of total crypto market cap, has dropped to a one-month low of under 59%. That implies a rotation into altcoins and many of them, such as UNI, NEAR and ARB have surged by nearly 30% in 24 hours.

“Altcoins have accelerated sharply while the majors lag. Markets hope for SEC and CFTC crypto adoption, plus passage of the Bitcoin Reserve Bill,” Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at The FxPro, said in an email.

“It appears that traders are cautiously shifting their focus towards altcoins, although neither the altcoin season index nor market sentiment has yet reached high levels,” he said. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Stocks and bonds dip as central banks jack up rates to tame inflation (Reuters): Global shares and bonds fell while the yen headed for its biggest daily slide since mid-February, after the BOJ raised interest rates to a 31-year high.
• Iran’s Strait of Hormuz toll booth ran through a bitcoin exchange, U.S. says (CoinDesk): Iran has spent this year charging tankers between $1 million and $2 million to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. Treasury said that since June, part of that money has moved through the Tehran-based crypto exchange BitBank.
• Ether and XRP ETFs post outflows as crypto majors move higher (CoinDesk): U.S. spot ether ETFs recorded roughly $39 million of net outflows on Thursday, a third consecutive day of withdrawals. XRP funds lost about $5 million, reversing a small inflow the day before. Bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $159 million.
• Asian shares finish higher, cheered by easing oil prices, but European benchmarks are slipping (AP): Asian equity indexes mostly rose Friday, getting a lift from a rally on Wall Street as well as declining oil prices, while European benchmarks slipped in early trading. U.S. shares look set to drift higher.

The table shows XRP’s price performance three and 12 months after each of its 16 prior golden crosses, with crosses cut short by a death cross marked terminated.

Every single one was terminated within 12 months. Six didn’t even survive three months. Of the 10 that did, five gained between 85% and over 1,000%, while five lost as much as 32%.

The data indicates that the golden cross, like most technical indicators, is not fully reliable when used in isolation.