Here’s how analysts see U.S. inflation influencing bitcoin

U.S. inflation is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones estimated September’s consumer price index rose 0.6% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to increase 0.2% from August and 2.5% annually.

The numbers are widely watched for cues on how the Federal Reserve might respond with interest rates. For bitcoin, the focus will be less on the headline number alone and more on how the report reshapes Fed interest-rate policy expectations.

Here’s how analysts see the report impacting bitcoin.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst, Bitget Research

“A hotter-than-expected inflation print could trigger another round of liquidations as Treasury yields and Fed expectations adjust.”

Lee said a recent selloff has reduced leverage in bitcoin, but may not have fully cleared the market’s riskier bets. In other words, traders may still be carrying substantial leveraged positions, which makes bitcoin vulnerable to another cascade of forced selling if yields rise and rate-cut expectations retreat.

Utkarsh Ahuja, founder and managing partner, Moon Pursuit Capital

“Higher inflation can keep Treasury yields elevated, support the dollar and increase the cost of capital, all of which create challenges for crypto and growth-oriented investments.”

Ahuja said investors should be cautious about assuming the Federal Reserve can ease policy as quickly as markets would like. He will watch the underlying inflation figures alongside the bond market’s reaction, noting that a softer reading could support a recovery in risk appetite.

Bitunix analyst

“A moderate core inflation reading could ease rate expectations and improve risk appetite across crypto markets. However, a hotter-than-expected report could push the dollar and Treasury yields higher, placing renewed pressure on digital assets.”

Beyond CPI, analysts are also watching ETF flows and oil-price swings for further clues on where risk appetite, and bitcoin, could head next. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Largest Philippines crypto exchange, Coins.ph, said to face central bank regulatory action (CoinDesk): Coins.ph, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the Philippines, is facing punitive action from the country’s central bank, two people with knowledge of the situation said.
• Coinbase, which holds 5% of all bitcoin, wants the quantum fix started now (CoinDesk): Coinbase laid out what it believes bitcoin needs to do to stay secure against a “potential future” quantum threat.
• Ripple adds Stripe-owned wallets to XRP Ledger as AI payments pass 14 million (CoinDesk): Ripple is bringing wallet technology from Stripe-owned Privy to the XRP Ledger, allowing financial applications and AI agents to create accounts, hold crypto and make payments without requiring users to manage their own wallet software.
• Global benchmarks are mixed in cautious trading after US stocks edge back from record (AP): Global markets, struck with concerns over inflation, increased bond market pressure and the Middle East conflict, were mixed, although interest in computer chips and artificial intelligence continued to support some global shares.

The chart shows daily swings in prices for Nymex-listed WTI crude futures.

Oil has bounced off the bullish trendline from July lows, reinforcing the broader upward trajectory.

On the higher side, the psychological level of $100 and the Sept. 15 high of $106.75 are key numbers to watch. A rally to these levels could add to inflation concerns, potentially weighing on risk assets.