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By James Van Straten, Stephen Alpher|Edited by Parikshit Mishra, Stephen Alpher
Updated Aug 12, 2025, 12:49 p.m. Published Aug 12, 2025, 12:36 p.m.
- The July Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year — less than expected.
- The core rate, however, rose a faster than hoped 3.1%.
- Bitcoin rose modestly to just below $119,000 following the news.
U.S. inflation data for July came in mixed, with headline numbers better than forecast, but the core rate rising faster than expected.
The July U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economist forecasts had been for 0.2% and June’s pace was 0.3%.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
On a year-over-year basis, CPI was higher by 2.7% against 2.8% expected and 2.7% previously.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% from the prior month, compared with forecasts for 0.3% and June’s 0.2% gain. On a yearly basis, core CPI increased 3.1%, versus expectations of 3% and June’s 2.9%.
The data likely isn’t far enough off from forecasts to lower expectations for a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut as soon as September, with market-implied odds at 84% before the release, according to CME FedWatch. Fifteen minutes following the mixed numbers, those odds had risen to 90%.
Ahead of the report, bitcoin
was trading near $118,500, as traders hedgeddownside risks with short-dated put options. In the minutes after the release, BTC rose very modestly to just under $119,000.
A check of traditional markets finds U.S. stock index futures on the rise following the CPI, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 each ahead about 0.6%. The dollar has softened a bit and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped three basis points to 4.26%.
Read more: Markets Today: Bitcoin, Ether Hold Gains as Ethena Hits $11.9B TVL, Pudgy Penguins Race to F1
James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin’s role within the broader financial system.
In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin and Strategy (MSTR).
Stephen is CoinDesk’s managing editor for Markets. He previously served as managing editor at Seeking Alpha. A native of suburban Washington, D.C., Stephen went to the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, majoring in finance. He holds BTC above CoinDesk’s disclosure threshold of $1,000.
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By Jamie Crawley, AI Boost|Edited by Parikshit Mishra
6 minutes ago
Grayscale is offering accredited investors direct exposure to DEEP and WAL, the native tokens of Sui’s DeepBook and Walrus protocols
What to know:
- Digital asset investment platform Grayscale has launched two new single-asset trusts providing exposure to Sui protocols DeepBook and Walrus.
- DeepBook is a decentralized central limit order book built on the Sui blockchain.
- Walrus, meanwhile, is a blockchain-based data storage platform designed to host the massive wells of information driven by the proliferation of AI tools.
