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By James Van Straten|Edited by Sheldon Reback
Apr 25, 2025, 8:50 a.m.
- ARK Invest’s revised 2030 bitcoin price target sees a range from $500,000 to $2.4 million, driven by assumptions on active supply and institutional adoption.
- BTC’s recent rally to $93,000 is supported by declining exchange balances, with Glassnode showing a drop from 3 million BTC in November to 2.6 million BTC.
ARK Invest raised its decade-end bitcoin (BTC) price target to as high as $2.4 million apiece after revising its assumptions on active supply, which excludes lost or long-held coins. The largest cryptocurrency by market value was recently trading around $94,000.
The bull-projection figure, 60% more than its January 2024 estimate, reflects a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from last December through the end of 2030. The base case estimates a BTC price of $1.2 million — a 53% CAGR — while the bear case projects $500,000, equating to a 32% CAGR.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
David Puell, an analyst at the Cathie Wood-led investment company, used a model based on total addressable market and projected market penetration across several sectors. These include institutional investment, bitcoin’s role as “digital gold,” its use as a haven in emerging markets, adoption for nation-state and corporate treasury holdings and on-chain financial services built on the bitcoin network.
In November last year, Puell targeted $104,000-$124,000 by year-end. Bitcoin ended December at $93,440 en route to hitting a record high of $109,000 in January before slumping to lows around $74,500 earlier this month.
The rally since then is partly driven by declining exchange balances, which indicate that more BTC is being withdrawn into private wallets, a sign of long-term holding behavior. According to Glassnode data, exchange-held BTC has fallen from approximately 3 million in November 2024 to 2.6 million, reinforcing the growing bullish sentiment around the cryptocurrency.
James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin’s role within the broader financial system.
In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).
