BTC
$109,037.19
–
0.53%
ETH
$2,550.43
–
1.84%
USDT
$1.0003
+
0.00%
XRP
$2.2354
–
2.60%
BNB
$659.76
–
0.35%
SOL
$150.36
–
2.71%
USDC
$0.9998
–
0.00%
TRX
$0.2875
+
1.21%
DOGE
$0.1668
–
3.94%
ADA
$0.5810
–
3.75%
HYPE
$38.89
–
3.60%
SUI
$2.9241
–
3.04%
WBT
$44.75
+
2.43%
BCH
$482.45
–
4.71%
LINK
$13.35
–
3.35%
LEO
$9.0398
+
0.37%
AVAX
$18.08
–
3.71%
XLM
$0.2401
–
2.36%
TON
$2.7986
–
3.15%
SHIB
$0.0₄1156
–
3.12%
By James Van Straten|Edited by Sheldon Reback
Jul 4, 2025, 10:25 a.m.
- The U.S. debt trajectory and relentless money printing raise the appeal of bitcoin as a scarce store of value, with Ray Dalio warning of “big, painful disruptions” if deficits remain unchecked.
- July’s seasonal trend favors bitcoin, which averages a 7% gain for the month, adding momentum as the price pushes past $100,000.
Bitcoin
looks poised to climb to an all-time high this July, propelled by converging macroeconomic and market forces that are driving investors into riskier assets.
U.S. equity indexes are already setting records, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average all sitting at highs, reflecting widespread investor confidence. As traditional markets soar, capital often spills into alternative assets, and BTC is a prime beneficiary. At around $109,000, the largest cryptocurrency is trading less than 3% below the peak it set in May.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
One factor is the U.S. M2 money supply, which has climbed to a record $21.9 trillion and has touched highs each month over the past year. This surge in liquidity means potentially more money flowing into financial assets and a hunt for investments that can preserve purchasing power as government debt balloons.
According to Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, President Donald Trump’s newly passed “Big Beautiful Bill” locks in roughly $7 trillion in annual spending against only $5 trillion in revenue. That will push debt levels from 100% of GDP toward 130% over the next decade.
“Unless this path is soon rectified to bring the budget deficit from roughly 7% of GDP to about 3% by making adjustments to spending, taxes, and interest rates, big, painful disruptions will likely occur,” he wrote in a post on X.
Historically, July has been a strong month for bitcoin, averaging gains around 7%, adding a seasonal tailwind. All signs point to the digital asset breaking new records in the coming months.
James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin’s role within the broader financial system.
In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin and Strategy (MSTR).
