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By James Van Straten|Edited by Parikshit Mishra
Updated Aug 14, 2025, 8:14 a.m. Published Aug 14, 2025, 8:08 a.m.
- The realized price recently reclaimed the 200WMA for the first time since June 2022, following nearly three years below it.
- In past cycles, this crossover marked the beginning of major rallies, as seen in the 2017 and 2021 bull runs.
Bitcoin
surged past $124,000, setting itsfourth all-time highof 2025.
On-chain data from Glassnode suggests this could mark the early stages of a continued bull market.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
A key metric underpinning this view is the realized price, which measures the total value of all bitcoins at the price they were last moved on-chain, divided by the number of coins in circulation. This metric at $51,888 has now climbed above bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (200WMA), a long-term trendline often seen as a dividing line between bear and bull markets.
History shows that when the realized price moves above the 200WMA and continues higher, as it did in the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the uptrend is sustained for a longer time. The 200WMA currently stands at $51,344, acting as a long-term support level that has historically defined the floor during bear markets.
This level has only been breached during periods of extreme market stress. The most recent example came at the end of the 2022 bear market, when bitcoin fell sharply amid the FTX collapse. The realized price dropped below the 200WMA in June 2022 and remained there for nearly three years before reclaiming it in 2025.
Breaking back above the 200WMA is significant, as it indicates renewed investor confidence and a shift in market structure.
If historical patterns hold, this technical development could be the precursor to a sustained rally. With macroeconomic conditions and institutional interest aligning, Bitcoin’s recent price action may be the opening chapter of its next major growth phase.
Read more: Who Is Cashing Out of Bitcoin at Record Highs Above $120K?
James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin’s role within the broader financial system.
In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin and Strategy (MSTR).
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The yen is no longer the most attractive funding currency, and the currency’s strength may not necessarily lead to broad-based risk aversion, one expert said.
What to know:
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- The yen is no longer the most attractive funding currency.
