Bitcoin Treads Water Near $90K as Bitfinex Warns of ‘Fragile Setup’ to Shocks

Bitcoin BTC$90,741.01 attempted a late weekend rally, but even those small gains were mostly reversed in early U.S. action Monday, with the price quietly settling in near the $90,000 area for the remainder of the day.

Trading around $90,500 as U.S. stocks closed, bitcoin was lower by about 1% over the past 24 hours.

Altcoin majors also struggled to hold on to their gains. Ethereum’s ether ETH$3,131.67 slipped slightly lower, but outperformed a bit and climbed to its strongest relative price against BTC in more than a month. Other notable outperformers were privacy-focused Zcash ZEC$409.49 and institutional-centered blockchain Canton Network (CC), both booking double-digit gains. The broader crypto market, measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, declined 0.8%.

While the crypto action was muted, long duration government bond yields spiked amid fears of trouble in Japanese bonds spilling over to the other markets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.19%, its highest level in about three months, while U.K. and other European countries’ government debt also sold off. Meanwhile, the Japanese 10-year bond yield kept climbing towards 2%, a level not seen in almost two decades.

U.S. equities also turned lower during the day, with the S&P 500 lower by 0.5% and the Nasdaq by 0.3%, weighing on the broader risk appetite.

This week’s key event will be the year’s last Federal Reserve meeting. While a 25 basis-point cut is fully baked into expectations, messaging about further trajectory or other liquidity measures could stir up volatility on Wednesday.

“Any easing in financial conditions or further weakening in the US dollar could provide tailwinds, while any hawkish surprise around the pace or extent of policy accommodation from the Federal Reserve could amplify downside pressure on crypto markets,” LMAX market strategist Joel Kruger said in a note.

Despite bitcoin’s recent bounce from the November lows, Bitfinex analysts warned that the largest crypto is grappling structural softness and weakening spot demand.

While the S&P 500 is trading near record highs, BTC is stuck rangebound, highlighting a deepening divergence between crypto and traditional risk assets that points to relative weakness, they pointed out in a Monday report.

Bitfinex outlined several key signals reinforcing this view:

• Persistent outflows from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, with traders selling into strength instead of accumulating, as shown by a sharply negative Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) across major exchanges.
• Over seven million BTC are now sitting at an unrealized loss, echoing bearish sentiment similar to the 2022 consolidation period.
• While capital inflows remain slightly positive at $8.69 billion per month (measured by Net Realized Cap Change), they are well off peak levels, offering only a modest buffer against downside risks.

All those factors add up to a fragile setup into the year-end, Bitfinex analysts argued.

“With spot demand weakening, the market now faces a meaningfully lighter buy-side backdrop,” the report said. “This reduces immediate support for price and increases sensitivity to external shocks, macro-driven volatility and any further tightening in financial conditions.”