BTC Risks Deeper Slide to $100K, XRP Challenges Corrective Trend

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作者 Omkar Godbole, AI Boost

更新 2025年8月4日 下午1:26已发布 2025年8月4日 下午1:17由 AI 翻译

Technical analysis. (shutterstock_248427865)
  • BTC risks deeper pullback to $100K.
  • XRP challenges the downtrend line, but sustained breakout may not happen immediately.
  • ETH chalks out a bearish outside week candle.
  • SOL nears golden cross.

This is a daily analysis of top tokens with CME futures by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) multi-month rally appears to have hit a significant wall, with a confluence of bearish signals emerging across both weekly and daily charts.

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The weekly candlestick chart shows that bulls have failed to establish a foothold above the macro trendline connecting the 2017 and 2021 bull market highs. This failed breakout is supported by weakening momentum, as the MACD histogram, though still positive, is significantly lower than its peak in December 2024 when the macro trendline was first tested.

The bearish sentiment is further reinforced by the 14-week RSI, which has broken its uptrend line from the March lows while continuing to print a series of lower highs since March 2024.

On a shorter-term daily timeframe, the shift in momentum is even more pronounced. The three-line break chart, a tool designed to filter out minor noise and confirm trend changes, has printed three straight red bricks (bars), a classic bearish reversal signal, confirming that sellers have seized control.

BTC's three-line break chart. (TradingView)

The combination of these signals – a failed long-term breakout, weakening momentum, and a confirmed short-term reversal – indicates that a deeper correction is now the path of least resistance and prices could take out the immediate support at $11,965, the former high hit in May, for a test of dip demand at $100,000.

Prices need to overcome $122,056 to invalidate the bearish setup.

  • Resistance: $120,000, $122,056, $123,181.
  • Support: $111,965, $112,301 (the 50-day SMA), $100,000.

While XRP

is attempting to break out of the downtrend line, which represents the recent correction, the overwhelming momentum from the moving averages across both the hourly and daily timeframes suggests that a sustained breakout may not occur immediately.

XRP's hourly chart. (TradingView)

On the daily timeframe, the price has seen a modest bounce, but this rally is capped by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is acting as a key resistance. This corrective move is happening against a bearish backdrop, with both the 5 and 10-day simple moving averages (SMAs) continuing to trend south, confirming the downward bias. Further, the 50-, 100-, and 200-hour SMAs are stacked in a bearish configuration, all trending south, a classic technical signal of a strong downtrend.

XRP's daily chart. (TradingView)

Should we close above $3.00, the focus would shift to the lower high of $3.33 registered on July 28.

  • Resistance: $3.33, $3.65, $4.00.
  • Support: $2.72, $2.65, $2.58.

Ether fell nearly 10% last week, forming a large bearish outside week candle, a significant bearish pattern, which indicates that sellers are looking to regain control.

Ether's weekly chart. (TradingView)

This sentiment is reinforced on the daily timeframe. The daily candlestick chart shows that the 5- and 10-day SMAs have executed a bearish cross, confirming a break in the short-term uptrend.

So, while the price has seen a modest bounce since Sunday, its strength is questionable. This is further substantiated by the daily three-line break chart, which has printed two consecutive red bricks – a decisive bearish signal that confirms the trend has reversed to the downside.

The combination of these long-term and short-term charts suggests that the path of least resistance is now lower.

  • Resistance: $3,941, $4,000, $4,100.
  • Support: $3,355, $3,000, $2,879.

Solana’s recent pullback appears to be meeting a critical test, with bulls successfully defending a key support level over the past 24 hours. The price has bounced from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally, a level often watched by traders as a strong potential price floor in an uptrend.

Solana's daily chart. (TradingView)

Meanwhile, a major long-term signal is on the horizon: the 50- and 200-day SMAs are nearing a “golden cross.” While this is a lagging indicator, a successful cross would be a powerful long-term bullish signal, confirming a major shift in momentum and potentially setting the stage for a new, sustained uptrend.

For traders, the coming days are critical, with the 61.8% Fib level needing to hold strong as support while the impending golden cross provides a bullish long-term tailwind. Also note that despite the defense of the Fib level, the short-term trend remains bearish, with the 5- and 10-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) continuing to trend lower.

  • Resistance: $175, $187, $200.
  • Support: $156, $145, $126.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor and analyst on CoinDesk’s Markets team. He has been covering crypto options and futures, as well as macro and cross-asset activity, since 2019, leveraging his prior experience in directional and non-directional derivative strategies at brokerage firms. His extensive background also encompasses the FX markets, having served as a fundamental analyst at currency and commodities desks for Mumbai-based brokerages and FXStreet. Omkar holds small amounts of bitcoin, ether, BitTorrent, tron and dot.

Omkar holds a Master’s degree in Finance and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation.

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“AI Boost” indicates a generative text tool, typically an AI chatbot, contributed to the article. In each and every case, the article was edited, fact-checked and published by a human. Read more about CoinDesk’s AI Policy.

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