Crypto Daybook Americas: Tariffs to Dominate Narrative as BTC ETF Volumes Surge

Crypto Daybook Americas

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By Omkar Godbole, Shaurya Malwa

Updated Jun 2, 2025, 11:17 a.m. Published Jun 2, 2025, 11:15 a.m.

Trading chart (Nicholas Cappello/Unsplash)

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The recent TACO tease, implying “Trump Always Chickens Out” on tariffs, likely didn’t go down well with the President, who raised the stakes in the ongoing trade war on Friday, leading to broad-based risk aversion, which persists as of writing.

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On Friday, Trump said that on June 4, the U.S. tariffs on imported aluminum and steel would go from 25% to 50%, triggering a broad-based risk-off move across global markets. Bitcoin has since traded in the range of $103,000-$106,000, with little to no excitement in the broader crypto market. Notably, BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) registered an outflow of $430 million, ending a prolonged inflows streak.

“Tariff tensions will likely dominate the macro narrative through June, with meaningful policy deadlines only kicking in from 8 July. In the absence of fresh catalysts, BTC could remain rangebound, with the $100k and $110k levels critical to watch given their status as strikes with the highest month-end open interest,” Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital said.

ETFs are becoming increasingly important to the market. Data shared by FalconX’s David Lawant shows that the cumulative trading volume in the 11 spot BTC ETFs listed in the U.S. is now well over 40% of the spot volume. The data supports the “Bitcoin ETFs are the new marginal buyer” hypothesis, according to Bitwise’s Head of Research – Europe, Andre Dragosch.

Meanwhile, on-chain data tracked by Glassnode showed a drop in momentum buyers alongside a sharp rise in profit takers last week. “This trend often shows near local tops, as traders begin locking in gains instead of building exposure,” Glassnode said.

High-stakes crypto trader James Wynn opened a fresh BTC long trade with 40x leverage and a liquidation price of $104,580, according to blockchain sleuth Lookonchain.

In other news, Japan’s “MicroStrategy” Metaplanet announced an additional purchase of 1,088 BTC, and billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk announced a new XChat with Bitcoin-like encryption.

Binance’s founder CZ said on X that now might be a good time to develop a dark pool-style perpetual-focused decentralized exchange, noting that real-time order visibility can lead to MEV attacks and malicious liquidations.

In traditional markets, gold looked to break out of its recent consolidation, hinting at the next leg higher as Bank of America and Morgan Stanley forecast continued dollar weakness. Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls release will be closely watched for signs of labor market weakness. Stay Alert!

  • Crypto
    • June 3, 1 p.m.: The Shannon hard fork network upgrade will get activated on the Pocket Network (POKT).
    • June 4, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets: From Blueprint to a Functional Framework.” Livestream link.
    • June 6: Sia (SC) is set to activate Phase 1 of its V2 hard fork, the largest upgrade in the project’s history. Phase 2 will get activated on July 6.
    • June 9, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on “DeFi and the American Spirit”
    • June 10, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing for Markup of Various Measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e. the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
  • Macro
    • June 2, 1 p.m.: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell will deliver a speech at the Federal Reserve Board’s International Finance Division 75th Anniversary Conference in Washington. Livestream link.
    • June 2, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Final) May U.S. Manufacturing PMI data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. 52.3 vs. Prev. 50.2
    • June 2, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases May Manufacturing PMI.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 48.7
    • June 3: South Koreans will vote to choose a new president following the ouster of Yoon Suk Yeol, who was dismissed after briefly declaring martial law in December 2024.
    • June 3, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April U.S. labor market data.
      • Job Openings Est. 7.10M vs. Prev. 7.192M
      • Job Quits Prev. 3.332M
    • June 3, 1 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook will deliver a speech on economic outlook at the Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York. Livestream link.
    • June 4, 12:01 a.m.: U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum will increase from 25% to 50%, according to a Friday evening Truth Social post by President Trump.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • None in the near future.
  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • June 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $14.18 million.
    • June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $57.11 million.
    • June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $13.24 million.
    • June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $17.11 million.
    • June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $10.64 million.
  • Token Launches
    • June 3: Bondex (BDXN) to be listed on Binance, Bybit, Coinlist, and others.
    • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends.
    • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN), & Synapse (SYN).

By Shaurya Malwa

  • At 11:26 p.m. on Sunday, billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk tweeted “Kekius Maximus pit level 117, hardcore rank 1,” and meme-coin traders pounced on frog-themed tokens and low-cap KEKIUS memecoins.
  • The Ethereum version surged over 25% in minutes, pushing its market cap to about $33 million. In comparison, a Solana-based KEKIUS zoomed as much as 30%, showing the same “Musk effect” despite far lower liquidity.
  • Musk adopted the “Kekius Maximus” persona on New Year’s Eve 2024 and has repeatedly juiced the token with profile changes and gaming references.
  • The name fuses crypto-native “Pepe the Frog” lore with Gladiator’s Maximus Decimus Meridius.
  • These tokens thrive (and falter) on social media hype; they lack solid fundamentals and can reverse just as quickly.
  • HBAR, DOT and LTC lead the majors in terms of growth in open interest in perpetual futures in the past 24 hours.
  • Annualized funding rates for majors remains positive or bullish, except for XLM and TON.
  • On the CME, one-month annualized basis in the BTC futures has pulled back to around 6.5% from the recent high of 9.5%. ETH’s basis remains relatively elevated above 8%.
  • On Deribit, BTC and ETH one and two-week options exhibit downside fears. Other expiries show call bias.
  • BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $104,642.17 (24hrs: +0.51%)
  • ETH is down 3.78% at $2,480.24 (24hrs: +0.47%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 2.28% at 3,028.20 (24hrs: +0.35%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 21 bps at 2.97%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.003% (3.2949% annualized) on Binance
CoinDesk 20 members’ performance
  • DXY is down 0.51% at 98.82
  • Gold is up 2.19% at $3,372.00/oz
  • Silver is up 1.65% at $33.44/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed -1.3% at 37,470.67
  • Hang Seng closed -0.57% at 23,157.97
  • FTSE is unchanged at 8,768.28
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.74% at 5,327.14
  • DJIA closed on Friday +0.13% at 42,270.07
  • S&P 500 closed unchanged at 5,911.69
  • Nasdaq closed -0.32% at 19,113.77
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.14% at 26,175.10
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.77% at 2,554.48
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 3 bps at 4.44%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.63% at 5,879.00
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.77% at 21,212.25
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.56% at 42,056.0
  • BTC Dominance: 64.62 (0.21%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02375 (-1.17%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 931 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $52.3
  • Total Fees: 3.47 BTC / $364,001
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 146,575 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.8 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.02%
Gold's daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)
  • Gold is looking to establish a foothold above the upper end of the falling channel.
  • A potential breakout would signal a resumption of the broader uptrend, offering bullish cues to bitcoin.
  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $369.06 (-0.42%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $246.62 (-0.89%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$24.92 (-7.87%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.12 (-3.35%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.07 (-1.34%), -0.25% at $8.05 in pre-market
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.65 (-0.37%), -1.5% at $10.49
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.63 (-1.71%), -0.35% at $8.60
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $16.47 (-2.54%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $40 (-0.2%), +1.72% at $40.69
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.5 (-5.97%), +0.39% at $28.61

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $616.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $44.35 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.20 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $70.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $3.06 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.66 million

Source: Farside Investors

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes
The U.S.-listed spot BTC ETF volume as a share of total BTC spot market volume. (FalconX)
  • The chart shows that the cumulative volume in U.S.-listed spot BTC ETFs as a share of the total bitcoin spot market volume has risen to record highs.
  • The data supports the “Bitcoin ETFs are the new marginal buyer” hypothesis.
Tariffs not working
ROSS ULBRICHT'S FINAL PRISON ID CARD JUST SOLD AT AUCTION
ETH is an *active* store of value.
Ross Ulbricht( @RealRossU ), the founder of the #SilkRoad marketplace, received 300 $BTC($31.4M) to his donation wallet
In the short run:  Strategy earns about 1.5x Bitcoin's return.  On average, if Bitcoin moves up 10% $MSTR gains 15.  If Bitcoin loses 10%, you lose 15.

Francisco Rodrigues, Siamak Masnavi, Jamie Crawley, James Van Straten contributed reporting.

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk’s Markets team based in Mumbai, holds a masters degree in Finance and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) member. Omkar previously worked at FXStreet, writing research on currency markets and as fundamental analyst at currency and commodities desk at Mumbai-based brokerage houses. Omkar holds small amounts of bitcoin, ether, BitTorrent, tron and dot.

CoinDesk News Image

Shaurya is the Co-Leader of the CoinDesk tokens and data team in Asia with a focus on crypto derivatives, DeFi, market microstructure, and protocol analysis.

Shaurya holds over $1,000 in BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, SUSHI, CRV, NEAR, YFI, YFII, SHIB, DOGE, USDT, USDC, BNB, MANA, MLN, LINK, XMR, ALGO, VET, CAKE, AAVE, COMP, ROOK, TRX, SNX, RUNE, FTM, ZIL, KSM, ENJ, CKB, JOE, GHST, PERP, BTRFLY, OHM, BANANA, ROME, BURGER, SPIRIT, and ORCA.

He provides over $1,000 to liquidity pools on Compound, Curve, SushiSwap, PancakeSwap, BurgerSwap, Orca, AnySwap, SpiritSwap, Rook Protocol, Yearn Finance, Synthetix, Harvest, Redacted Cartel, OlympusDAO, Rome, Trader Joe, and SUN.

Shaurya Malwa

 

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