December Fed Rate Cut: A Toss-Up

Bitcoin (BTC) Macro News: December Fed Rate Cut Bets Hang in Balance

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Odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have fallen to about 52%, indicating increased investor uncertainty.

Nov 13, 2025, 12:28 p.m.

Odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have fallen to about 52%, indicating increased investor uncertainty.
A potential 25 basis point cut would lower the benchmark interest rate range to 3.5%-3.75%.
The reduced likelihood of a rate cut may limit gains in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Federal Reserve rate cut odds for December have fallen to near coin toss levels, signaling rising uncertainty among investors ahead of the Dec. 10 meeting, according to data source CME’s FedWatch tool.

Markets now price roughly a 52% chance of a 25 basis point cut, down sharply from 95% a month ago and 65% a week ago. A potential 25 bps cut would push the benchmark interest rate range down to 3.5%-3.75%.

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The dwindling probability of the December cut could continue to cap gains in BTC and other cryptocurrencies. As of writing, BTC changed hands near $103,000, trading little changed on the day, according to CoinDesk data.

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Bitcoin and ether steadied on Thursday while altcoins faced sharper pullbacks, with AERO, STRK and FET leading declines as market sentiment remained firmly in “fear” territory.

What to know:

AERO tumbled 18% after unveiling plans to merge with Velodrome, while STRK and FET saw double-digit declines as rallies from earlier in the week cooled.
Total open interest slipped 1.13% to $142 billion even as trading volume jumped 25%, signaling traders are favoring spot exposure over leverage.
The dollar index hovered near 100, threatening further pressure on risk assets if it breaks higher as crypto searches for a catalyst to confirm direction.

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