Dogecoin Leads Gain, Bitcoin Pops to $114K as M2 Setup Opens BTC Catchup Trade

Bitcoin BTC$114,214.53 traded around $114,200 in Asian morning hours Thursday, up 2.4% over 24 hours, as majors firmed into a heavy macro week.

Ether (ETH) was up 2.4% to $4,400, XRP XRP$3.0012 rose above $3, BNB Chain’s BNB (BNB)neared $900 and Solana’s SOL (SOL) gained nearly 3%. Dogecoin DOGE$0.2508 outperformed with a 5% daily gain that extended a weeklong move higher to 15.9%.

A valuation trend is catching attention among some traders. CF Benchmarks said in a report earlier this week that suggested bitcoin is trading below its fair value range when mapped against U.S. M2 growth.

The firm noted that the gap between M2 expansion and the BTC price is as wide as at any time since August 2024, which has turned into a strong entry point. Similar divergences in 2016, 2019, and 2021 preceded notable upside.

Over the past decade, BTC has shown a positive correlation with M2, with monetary growth typically leading price by roughly three months. If that historical relationship holds, liquidity tailwinds later in Q4 could favor a push higher.

Tactically, bulls still have levels to reclaim.

“Bitcoin continues to attract buyers on intraday dips, forming a smooth and rather fragile uptrend, with the main battle now around $112K,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, in an email to CoinDesk.

“The real test sits near $115K, just above the 50-day moving average. Staying above it would signal a return to optimism, but for now BTC is lagging stocks at record highs,”Kuptsikevich added.

Options desks report firmer demand for protection ahead of this week’s U.S. inflation data, consistent with neutral-to-bearish positioning in the short term.

Meanwhile, SOL’s bid has tracked a steady rise in TVL to a record $12.2 billion, up 57% since June, while memecoins captured fresh flows. Analysts floating $300 SOL targets tie the call to persistent activity and on-chain liquidity, though follow-through likely depends on broader risk appetite.

The macro calendar can still spoil the party, however, as U.S CPI figures are due later on Thursday. A cooler trajectory would strengthen the case for a near-term Fed cut and a softer dollar, typically supportive for bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

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