Key Bitcoin Capitulation Metric Points to Bottoming in Price

Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) ratio is flashing a level that has historically marked short-term market bottoms, with the metric dropping to 0.476 this week to its lowest point since April.

The NUP measures the share of coins held in profit across the Bitcoin network by comparing current prices to each coin’s last on-chain movement. A high reading suggests excess unrealized gains and a greater likelihood of profit-taking, while low readings point to capitulation, when most coins are near or below cost basis.

CryptoQuant data shows that this same 0.47-0.48 band triggered reversals three times since early 2024: once before Bitcoin’s rally from $42,000 to $70,000 in February, again during the mid-2024 correction, and most recently before the October rebound to $110,000.

Each instance followed a wash-out in leverage and a decline in aggregate funding rates, making a dynamics that align with the current setup.

At present, bitcoin trades near $103,000 after slipping almost 10% over the past week.

If the pattern holds, the NUP reading below 0.5 could again mark a local bottom as selling pressure gives way to accumulation. In previous cycles, rebounds from this zone have averaged 15-25% over the following month, depending on liquidity conditions and macro sentiment.

While not a guarantee, the setup suggests a short-term relief move may be ahead — particularly if global risk appetite improves and U.S. yields stabilize. In that scenario, bitcoin could find support between $100,000 and $102,000 before attempting another leg higher.