Bettors predict it will last longer than Oct. 15, but won’t break the record set by the first Trump administration in 2018-2019.
By Sam Reynolds|Edited by Omkar Godbole
Oct 6, 2025, 7:43 a.m.
- Polymarket bettors predict that the U.S. government shutdown will last until after Oct. 15 but end within a month.
- Bettors give a 72% chance of the government reopening on or after Oct. 15, with significant betting volume on this outcome.
- Some market observers argue that the shutdown has contributed to BTC’s recent rally, which has seen it break all-time highs.
Polymarket bettors are putting their money on the U.S. Government remaining shut until Oct. 15, but they are also saying it will be back in operation within a month.
Bettors are giving a 72% chance to the government being back in operation on Oct, 15 or later, with $1.4 million in volume in a $4 million contract on that date range.
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Another contract which asks for the length of the shutdown gives a 67% chance that it goes on for 10-29 days, and only a 27% chance that its longer than a month putting it under the record for the longest government shutdown in history which occurred during the first Trump administration.
Some market observers are pointing to the U.S. government shutdown as a reason why BTC recently rallied, hitting new highs above $125,000.
The Congress is reportedly in a stalemate with recent resolutions to fund and re-open government failing to hit the required threshold.
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Your look at what’s coming in the week starting Oct. 6.
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