Prediction Markets Say Government Shutdown Will be Record-Setting: Asia Morning Briefing

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Prediction market bettors are growing increasingly convinced that the U.S. government shutdown will make history. Contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in a resumption of government after 40 days, surpassing the 35-day record set in 2019.

Traders on Polymarket assign the highest probability to a resolution around November 15, while Kalshi’s duration market forecasts an average length of 41.6 days, which would bring it to November 11.

Even as much of Washington grinds to a halt, with nearly a million federal employees either furloughed or working without pay, the Federal Reserve remains insulated. The central bank operates independently from congressional appropriations, meaning it can still hold policy meetings and adjust rates during a shutdown.

Polymarket bettors assign a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the upcoming October 29 FOMC meeting, followed by an 85% chance of another quarter-point cut in December.

The challenge is informational: with jobs, inflation, and GDP reports delayed, the Fed may be forced to make back-to-back cuts based on incomplete data.

It may be entirely coincidental, but the last prolonged shutdown in 2018–2019 aligned with Bitcoin’s bear-market bottom, when BTC fell to just above $3,000 before rebounding strongly after the government reopened.

This time, the shutdown has coincided with a record rally in gold, now above $4,200 per ounce, and a massive $20 billion crypto leverage flush that has reset derivatives markets.

BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $108,000, slipping 1.8% as traders unwound weekend gains and risk sentiment weakened, with renewed macro uncertainty and cooling ETF inflows weighing on digital assets.

ETH: Ethereum is retesting the $4,100 resistance as treasury firms SharpLink and BitMine ramp up accumulation, purchasing a combined $278 million in ETH over the past week to expand their holdings amid market consolidation.

Gold: Gold fell 5.5% to $4,121.50 and silver dropped 7.5% to $48.37 in their sharpest one-day declines in years, as traders took profits after a parabolic rally, though analysts said both metals remain in strong long-term uptrends.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose on the day after data showed exports grew 4.2% year on year in September, snapping a four-month decline as stronger shipments to Asia offset weaker demand from the U.S., while imports climbed 3.3%, beating expectations.

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