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By Sam Reynolds|Edited by Stephen Alpher
Jun 20, 2025, 8:17 p.m.
- Bloomberg analysts predict a high likelihood of SEC approval for most crypto ETFs, including for XRP.
- They noted the SEC’s engagement as a positive sign and see many ETFs as now having a 90% or higher chance of approval.
- The SUI ETF, filed by Canary, is an exception with only a 60% approval chance due to regulatory uncertainties.
Odds are stacked that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approves most of the filed crypto exchange-traded funds, including the various XRP ETFs, by their respective deadlines, according to Bloomberg Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas.
“We are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart said in a post on X. “Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion.”
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
According to the analysts, ETFs for assets like Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano all now sit at or above the 90% mark.
These estimates reflect growing optimism from ETF specialists following a wave of 19b-4 acknowledgements and S-1 amendment requests from the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Analysts view this back-and-forth process as a signal that the SEC is now more willing to work with issuers.
The only asset lagging behind is SUI, filed solely by Canary. Bloomberg assigns it a 60% chance of approval, citing a lack of regulated futures and regulatory uncertainty.
Bettors on Polymarket are also feeling optimistic.
They are giving a 98% chance that an XRP ETF gets approved this year, and a 91% chance a SOL ETF gets the green light. It’s also likely that a DOGE ETF gets a go-ahead, with bettors giving that a 71% chance of happening.
Sam Reynolds is a senior reporter based in Asia. Sam was part of the CoinDesk team that won the 2023 Gerald Loeb award in the breaking news category for coverage of FTX’s collapse. Prior to CoinDesk, he was a reporter with Blockworks and a semiconductor analyst with IDC.
