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By James Van Straten|Edited by Parikshit Mishra
Jul 10, 2025, 9:22 a.m.
- The MVRV Z-Score, currently at 2.4, remains well below the levels seen at previous market tops [typically above 7], hinting at further upside potential for bitcoin.
- Historical trends show that when bitcoin’s market value sits significantly higher than its realized value, major peaks occur, but current data suggests the market has not yet reached such extremes.
Bitcoin
reached new all-time highs just above $112,000 on Wednesday, although the increase was only marginal compared to the previous peak. Despite the wave of bullish corporate adoption, with public companies adding bitcoin to theirbalance sheets.
On-chain data suggests that bitcoin has more room to run when compared to previous cycle highs. One useful metric in this analysis is the MVRV Z-Score, which helps evaluate whether bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to what could be considered its fair value.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Unlike a traditional z-score, the MVRV Z-Score uniquely compares the market value to the realized value. When the market value, calculated as the network’s valuation based on the spot price multiplied by supply, sits significantly above the realized value, which reflects the cumulative capital inflow into the asset, this has historically signaled market tops [red zone]. Conversely, when the market value is well below the realized value, it has often indicated market bottoms [green zone].
The MVRV Z-Score is defined as the ratio between the difference of market cap and realized cap, and the standard deviation of market cap, expressed as [market cap minus realized cap] divided by the standard deviation of market cap. The standard deviation is calculated cumulatively from the first available data point to the present day, making it a long-term measure.
Currently, the MVRV Z-Score sits at 2.4. In past bear market lows, bitcoin has registered scores below zero, as seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022. Meanwhile, cycle tops have historically occurred when the score reaches 7 or higher, as was the case in 2017 and 2021, according to Glassnode data.
Although this is just one data point, it indicates that bitcoin still has significant potential for further upside compared to previous cycles.
Read more: This Chart Points to a 30% Bitcoin Price Boom Ahead: Technical Analysis
James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin’s role within the broader financial system.
In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin and Strategy (MSTR).
