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Network activity remains the key driver of ether’s value, but much of the recent growth has been on layer-2s, the report noted.
By Will Canny, AI Boost|Edited by Stephen Alpher
Sep 15, 2025, 8:57 p.m.
- Citi predicts that ether will fall to $4,300 by year-end but could slide to $2,200 in the bear case or rise to $6,400 in a bullish scenario.
- Layer-2 growth clouds valuation, with Citi assuming just 30% pass-through to Ethereum’s base layer, leaving current prices above model estimates.
- ETF inflows are punching above their weight, but are expected to stay smaller than bitcoin’s.
Wall Street giant Citigroup (C) has launched new ether (ETH) forecasts, calling for $4,300 by year-end, which would be a decline from the current $4,515.
That’s the base case though. The bank’s full assessment is wide enough to drive an army regiment through, with the bull case being $6,400 and the bear case $2,200.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
The bank analysts said network activity remains the key driver of ether’s value, but much of the recent growth has been on layer-2s, where value “pass-through” to Ethereum’s base layer is unclear.
Citi assumes just 30% of layer-2 activity contributes to ether’s valuation, putting current prices above its activity-based model, likely due to strong inflows and excitement around tokenization and stablecoins.
A layer 1 network is the base layer, or the underlying infrastructure of a blockchain. Layer 2 refers to a set of off-chain systems or separate blockchains built on top of layer 1s.
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, though smaller than bitcoin’s (BTC), have a bigger price impact per dollar, but Citi expects them to remain limited given ether’s smaller market cap and lower visibility with new investors.
Macro factors are seen adding only modest support. With equities already near the bank’s S&P 500 6,600 target, the analysts do not expect major upside from risk assets.
Read more: Ether Bigger Beneficiary of Digital Asset Treasuries Than Bitcoin or Solana: StanChart
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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