World Cup bets smash records as prediction markets hit $20 billion in volume

The 2026 FIFA World Cup generated a record $20 billion in prediction market volume, according to blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis.

The figure encompasses activity across nearly 400,000 wallets starting in January 2026 with $5.7 billion in volume generated during the tournament itself, Chainalysis said in a Thursday report.

Markets ranged from the simple question of who would win the international soccer tournament to whether Portugal legend Cristiano Ronaldo would cry when his team was eliminated (he did).

The World Cup, held in June and July, represented by far the biggest prediction market event in terms of volume, shattering the $3.6 billion traded during the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Other notable events were Super Bowl 60 in February and the NCAA’s basketball tournament known as March Madness, both of which eclipsed the $1 billion mark.

Prediction markets offer derivatives contracts on the outcome of future events, and settle when the relevant event takes place.

Market leader Polymarket runs on blockchain rails with trades and settlement in stablecoin USDC. As a result, the platforms have become one of the ways in which blockchain technology has gained significant mainstream attention.

Polymarket was valued at $15 billion during funding discussions in April while main rival Kalshi is reported to be targeting a $40 billion valuation in its latest investment talks.

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