U.S. unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, putting Fed rate hikes in question

The U.S. labor market showed weakness for the second consecutive month in July, possibly giving the Federal Reserve room to hold rates in place despite high inflation.

According to the government’s Nonfarm Payrolls Report released Friday morning, the U.S. lost 23,000 jobs last month. That was far below the consensus expectation of a gain of 80,000 jobs, and down from June’s addition of 20,000 (revised down from an originally reported 57,000).

May’s job gains were also revised sizably lower — down to 63,000 from an originally reported 129,000.

The last negative jobs print was in February, when the U.S. lost 156,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, compared with the expected 4.2% and June’s 4.2%.

Market reaction is swift, with U.S. stock index futures gaining and interest rates dipping. Also moving higher are precious metals, with gold now up 3% for the day and silver up just shy of 6%. There’s little action in crypto, with bitcoin remaining modestly higher on the session at $65,000.

Checking other jobs report data, average hourly earnings missed forecasts as well, rising just 0.1% in July against 0.3% expected, and 0.3% in June. On a year-over-year basis, earnings rose just 3.2% verus 3.5% expected, and 3.4% in June.

An interesting contrarian take comes from Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, who said the Fed needs to and likely will mostly ignore today’s report. A seasonal adjustment quirk due to the timing of the World Cup is likely behind much of the weakness, he argued. “No signal from the jobs report, and we think investors will turn their attention to the July CPI report next week.”

Ahead of this morning’s report, markets were split on whether the Fed would hike rates at its next policy meeting in September. According to CME FedWatch, interest rate traders were pricing in a 55% chance the U.S. central bank would tighten next month. In the immediate aftermath of the print, that number has slipped back to 46%.