Live updates: Bitcoin holding near $65,000 as U.S. lost jobs last month

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has spent much of his early tenure focused on inflation, but Friday’s weak jobs report could force the labor market back into the conversation, according to Stephen Coltman, head of macro at digital asset manager 21Shares.

“Since Warsh took over as Chair, the focus has been squarely on inflation, and the employment side of the Fed’s mandate has been barely discussed. That changes today,” said Coltman.

The weak print, following disappointing June numbers and downward revisions to earlier months, makes another rate hike harder to justify, Coltman said.

The latest numbers “undermine the position of those on the committee arguing for higher rates,” he said.

Another hike could now carry a bigger cost, Coltman added, potentially putting more pressure on “what looks like an already deteriorating labour market.”

The U.S. labor market showed weakness for the second consecutive month in July, possibly giving the Federal Reserve room to hold rates in place despite high inflation.

According to the government’s Nonfarm Payrolls Report released Friday morning, the U.S. lost 23,000 jobs last month. That was far below the consensus expectation of a gain of 80,000 jobs, and down from June’s addition of 20,000 (revised down from an originally reported 57,000).

May’s job gains were also revised sizably lower — down to 63,000 from an originally reported 129,000.

The last negative jobs print was in February, when the U.S. lost 156,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, compared with the expected 4.2% and June’s 4.2%.

Market reaction is swift, with U.S. stock index futures gaining and interest rates dipping. Also moving higher are precious metals, with gold now up 3% for the day and silver up just shy of 6%. There’s little action in crypto, with bitcoin remaining modestly higher on the session at $65,000.

Checking other jobs report data, average hourly earnings missed forecasts as well, rising just 0.1% in July against 0.3% expected, and 0.3% in June. On a year-over-year basis, earnings rose just 3.2% verus 3.5% expected, and 3.4% in June.

Ahead of this morning’s data, markets were split on whether the Fed would hike rates at its next policy meeting in September. According to CME FedWatch, interest rate traders were pricing in a 55% chance the U.S. central bank would tighten next month. In the immediate aftermath of the print, that number has slipped back to 46%.

The upcoming U.S. jobs report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rising by 80,000 in July, after 57,000 in June, while unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. Markets currently price a 55% chance of a September Fed rate hike, which would increase the target range to 3.75%-4.00% if it occurs.

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The wallet supports HyperLiquid and selected Ethereum-compatible networks or blockchains, and MetaMask says it adds transaction simulations, threat checks and Miner Extractable Value (MEV)-protection tools before an agent completes a trade.

Nothing good happens when the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note trades above 4.5%, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer said Friday.

“Long-term bond yields are on the move again, with the 10-year yield well into the danger zone at 4.73%. As I have written many times, recent history suggests that nothing good happens above 4.5%,” he noted.

The rise in yields could be driven by several factors, Timmer explained.

One possibility is a reverse “crowding out” effect: rather than heavy government borrowing squeezing out private-sector investment, insatiable demand for financing from AI companies may be diverting investor appetite away from Treasuries.

Another explanation is growing skepticism that a hawkish Federal Reserve will back its rhetoric with meaningful action. Alternatively, the move may reflect the consequences of a less transparent Fed, as reduced clarity tends to increase uncertainty and push up risk premia.

“Less transparency means more uncertainty, and more uncertainty usually means high risk premia. Either way, we have a bear steepening on our hands,” he noted.

Hardening bond yields often create a headwind for stocks and emerging technologies such as cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin traded near $64,350 on Friday, unchanged on the week, as the whole market drifted ahead of the US payrolls report, per CoinDesk data. Ether held at $1,903 and the rest of the majors sat within a point or two, a market waiting on the data rather than moving on anything of its own.

The setup turned slightly less friendly overnight. Brent rose 1.4% to $83.61 after reports Iran will try to restrict US and Israeli ships through the Strait of Hormuz and demand compensation from countries it deems hostile before letting them pass, stalling the deal that had been pulling oil lower. Higher crude revives the inflation worry that keeps the Fed leaning tight, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed seven basis points on it during the US session.

That macro chain is the one bitcoin has been stuck inside all summer. Oil up feeds inflation, inflation keeps yields and the dollar firm, and firmer financial conditions cap risk assets. The dollar just posted its best day in two weeks, which is the opposite of the easing setup bulls want.

Today’s jobs number is the release that matters. A soft print revives the case for the Fed to loosen and gives bitcoin room above its range. A strong one, stacked on climbing oil, hands the hawks another reason to hold, and the range that has held since May holds again. Watch the reaction in yields, not just the headline number.