OKX’s Rafique doubts Clarity Act will pass, warns optimism is already priced into bitcoin

OKX’s Haider Rafique said he is increasingly pessimistic that the Clarity Act will clear Congress this year, arguing political realities rather than policy disagreements are the biggest obstacle to the landmark crypto market structure bill.

Rafique, who is the exchange’s global managing partner for Corporate Affairs and Investor Relations, said Democrats have little incentive to hand Republicans a major legislative victory ahead of this year’s midterm elections, particularly given criticism surrounding President Donald Trump’s ties to the crypto industry.

“I don’t believe there is enough Democratic support for it to pass,” Rafique told CoinDesk in an interview before the Senate announced it would not vote on the bill this month. “Why would they want to give Republicans such a significant win on a highly polarizing piece of legislation before the midterms?”

The Clarity Act is widely regarded as the crypto industry’s most consequential U.S. market structure bill, with supporters arguing it would establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and encourage greater institutional participation.

Its prospects have dimmed, however. Industry leaders are now looking to September, when the Senate returns to Washington, D.C., as the next opportunity for a vote.

While acknowledging bipartisan support exists for the legislation, Rafique said party politics are likely to outweigh the industry’s push for regulatory clarity.

He dismissed Democratic concerns over ethics provisions as inconsistent, arguing lawmakers should instead adopt broader restrictions on public officials participating in financial markets.

Despite his skepticism, Rafique described the Clarity Act as critical to the future of the U.S. digital asset industry. He said clear federal rules would help retain entrepreneurs, investment and intellectual property that are increasingly being built overseas.

“Without clarity, entrepreneurs will continue to stay offshore,” Rafique said, pointing to companies such as Hyperliquid and Backpack, which chose jurisdictions outside the U.S. “There is only one Silicon Valley and one Wall Street. The U.S. should be creating the environment for these companies to build at home.”

OKX is one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, offering spot, derivatives and Web3 services. The company resumed its U.S. expansion in 2025 after resolving a long-running case with the U.S. Department of Justice over unlicensed money-transmitting activity.

Rafique also argued that markets have already priced in much of the potential benefit from the legislation.

He said bitcoin’s recent rebound was partly driven by renewed optimism around the bill, meaning passage would likely generate only a modest short-term rally of around 3%-4%.

Conversely, failure to pass the legislation could trigger a sharper decline, with Rafique seeing bitcoin potentially falling toward the $55,000 level before attracting significant retail buying interest.

“The market prices news ahead of time,” he said. “Most of the appreciation from Clarity is already reflected in current prices.”

Separately, Rafique outlined ambitious plans for OKX’s joint venture with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), describing it as a key step in the exchange’s long-term U.S. strategy.

The partnership is initially focused on distributing ICE market data and products to OKX’s global user base of roughly 150 million customers. Rafique said the companies are working with ICE’s futures teams to introduce additional products, including perpetual futures and other derivatives linked to traditional assets in markets such as Europe and the United Arab Emirates.

Longer term, the venture aims to bring issuer-backed tokenized equities, spot products and futures contracts onchain.

Rafique said issuer-backed tokenized stocks offer a more sustainable market structure than synthetic or wrapped equity models because investors retain the same governance and shareholder rights as holders of the underlying shares.

He added that the joint venture could eventually expand into event contracts and prediction markets as the regulatory framework evolves.

Read more: Bernstein sees another leg lower for crypto markets if Clarity Act stalls