A $3.2 million ‘bitcoin butterfly’ option trade bets on $95,000 by the end of October

Bitcoin’s

BTC$85,942.61

rally has traders chasing upside exposure, with the most notable options trade of the past 24 hours pointing to expectations for a move toward $95,000 by the end of October.

The trade was a “long call butterfly,” an options strategy that benefits most when the underlying asset settles near a specified middle strike price at expiry. The trade involved buying the Oct. 30 expiry calls at $90,000 and $100,000 while simultaneously selling twice as many $95,000 calls.

The trade was executed via liquidity network Paradigm in five blocks, each consisting of 1,000 long $90,000 calls, 2,000 short $95,000 calls and 1,000 long $100,000 calls, according to data source Laevitas. The combined position involved a net initial payment of $3.17 million.

The strategy makes the most money if bitcoin is around $95,000 at expiry and has positive gross payoff between $90,000 and $100,000. Outside that range, the payoff is zero and the trader stands to lose the $3.17 million paid to establish the position.

In other words, the trader appears to be positioning for bitcoin to rise from roughly $85,000 to $95,000 over the next four weeks. That view broadly aligns with bitcoin’s daily chart, which shows little obvious resistance between $85,000 and $98,000.

There are no price levels in that zone where bitcoin previously stalled or consolidated, so, all else being equal, the current momentum could push it toward $98,000 in the near-term (check Today’s Signal).

The butterfly was not the only sign of growing bullish positioning. Traders also increased their demand for upside exposure through call options, pushing short-term risk reversals higher.

“Risk reversals have also been volatile, with front-end RRs flipping aggressively in favour of calls during the move up to $85K, before retracing somewhat this morning,” Laser Digital said in a note shared with CoinDesk.

The options market is also showing a broader preference for volatility across major tokens. On Monday, Coinbase Markets said options were pricing one-standard-deviation swings of 8.9% for XRP, 8.0% for SOL, 6.9% for ether and 5.0% for bitcoin through Sept. 27.

The figures measure expected price swings rather than directional bets, with risk of volatility highest in XRP. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Binance buys $100 million Circle stake in five-year USDC promotion deal (CoinDesk): Circle sold 1.24 million shares at $80.84 each and will pay Binance a monthly fee tied to USDC held through its wallet infrastructure.
• Cardano joins Solana, XRP Ledger in race to power AI agent payments (CoinDesk): Cardano has been added to the official x402 software kit, giving developers the code needed to allow an app or AI agent pay for an online service using ADA or tokens issued on the network.
• Elon Musk’s X brings bitcoin and stock trading closer to the timeline (CoinDesk): Elon Musk’s X has made it easier for U.S.-based users to turn crypto and stock market chatter on their timeline into trades without leaving the app for long by tapping the new “Trade” button.
• U.S. Treasury yields ease as investors await fresh jobs data, Fed comments (CNBC): Treasury yields eased Tuesday as investors awaited new clues on the state of the U.S. economy. The 10-year T-bond stood at 4.943%, the two-year note at 4.741%, and the 30-year at 5.272%.

The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format. Overlaid on the chart are 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages.

BTC is trading well above all three averages, a bullish configuration.

“BTC has reclaimed every one of its long-term moving averages. After around 300 days underneath them, this dynamic has now flipped. Holding above them is what maintains a long-term uptrend,” Glassnode said.

In addition, BTC’s Monday candle ended well above the May high, topping the key resistance to mark yet another bullish breakout. The next big resistance, or level, from where markets fell, is marked by the January high of above $98,000.