Bitcoin ETFs on track for the smallest monthly inflows ever

This month, analysts have repeatedly pointed to multiday inflows into the U.S.-listed crypto exchange-traded funds as evidence of the return of institutional demand. Zoom out, though, and the institutional story still looks bleak.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have pulled in just $205 million in net inflows in July, the lowest monthly total on record, according to SoSoValue data. While there are still two trading days left, the figure marks anemic recovery from the heavy red ink of prior months, which saw $2.43 billion exit in May and $4.52 billion in June.

Ether has fared somewhat better. ETH ETFs have attracted $342.85 million in July, almost as much as in April and outperforming bitcoin and other crypto funds. XRP is on track for a fourth consecutive month of inflows, though the sum remains a paltry $13.61 million. Solana ETFs sit at $13.82 million.

Together, the numbers paint a picture of limited institutional appetite at best. Ether’s stronger haul is consistent with its price performance against bitcoin. The Binance-listed ether-bitcoin pair has surged by 11% this month.

In the past 24 hours, neither price has moved decisively despite the Fed delivering what some analysts described as a hawkish hold that might have argued for a decline.

“On the board, the 200-week near $63,300 is the referee, hold it and today’s flatness reads as strength, lose $62.5k and the bears get their $60k liquidation target,” analysts at Marex said.

Volatility may pick up later today with the release of the U.S. core PCE inflation and GDP data. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Senators ready to send stricter ethics rules on Trump’s crypto ventures to White House, sources say (CoinDesk): Insiders say that the bipartisan Senate duo revamping the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act draft’s Trump-approved ethics section have come up with something they hope wins sufficient yes votes.
• U.S. strikes Iran as widening war engulfs more countries (Reuters): The U.S. carried out fresh strikes in Iran on Wednesday, and Iran threatened with further escalation as the five-month-old war expands across the region. Oil prices saw their sharpest spike in five months.
• Treasury sell-off continues after divided Fed holds interest rates steady (CNBC): U.S. Treasury yields extended their climb as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady and sought insight on future monetary policy decisions. The yield on the 30-year bond rose to its highest level since July 2007.
• Bitcoin and ether markets are ruled by perps. SpaceX showed how far their influence can go (CoinDesk): A body of market-microstructure work asked which venue “discovers” a bitcoin price first, meaning where new information enters the market before it shows up anywhere else. The answer frequently points to derivatives.

The chart shows BTC’s daily price swings in candlestick format, with Bollinger Bands overlaid. Bollinger bands are volatility bands that sit two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of a cryptocurrency’s spot price.

These bands tend to tighten when an asset trades in a narrow price range for a long time. That’s what’s happening right now.

The bands are at their tightest at least since January. A prolonged tightening, often called squeeze, often ends with a strong move. It’s like a compressed spring that stores energy until it finally releases, launching the price sharply higher or lower.

Put simply, a big move could be brewing.