Bitcoin’s inflation quagmire gets stickier as renewed MidEast conflict sends oil price soaring

Will the Fed focus on the breakevens, which are already at or below 2% at the short end, or on rising consumer concerns?

The Fed itself tends to trust breakevens because they reflect institutional capital allocation, while consumer surveys frequently lag behind and can be heavily influenced by volatile everyday costs like energy and food. Hence, the argument that falling breakevens are bullish for bitcoin still holds.

But the central bank may not entirely ignore Main Street sentiment, which can become self-reinforcing, especially if catalysts like energy prices remain volatile.

And guess what? The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has collapsed. The two sides exchanged airstrikes early today, triggering a roughly 5% jump in oil benchmarks. Bitcoin has fallen back to $62,000 and may drop further if the panic spreads to Wall Street later today.

Analysts are also watching the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, due later today.

“Wednesday’s Fed minutes are the pin. With longs this crowded and funding this rich, a hawkish read is exactly the spark that flushes leverage, and the Strategy authorization hangs over every rally. We respect the bounce, we do not trust it, and we keep size honest into the minutes,” analysts at Marex said in an email.

Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.“

• Bitcoin under pressure as Trump says Iran ceasefire is over (CoinDesk): Bitcoin and the broader crypto market came under pressure after the U.S. and Iran exchanged air strikes, sending the dollar higher, and President Donald Trump said the ceasefire is over.
• Dow futures drop 700 points, oil surges after Trump declares Iran ceasefire ‘over’ (CNBC): Stock futures moved sharply amid renewed hostilities in the Middle East. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 705 points, or 1.3%. Oil prices were up more than 6%.
• Crypto exchange Kraken is trying to become a bank in Europe (CoinDesk): Kraken, the crypto exchange planning to go public in the U.S., is pursuing a full banking license in Europe, with a focus on Lithuania to secure it, according to a person familiar with the plans.
• BlackRock-backed Securitize slides 40% after SPAC debut despite tokenization boom (CoinDesk): Securitize (SECZ), the BlackRock-backed tokenization specialist that went public last week, is off to a rough start despite arriving as one of the few pure-play bets on one of Wall Street’s hottest crypto trends. The firm’s shares tumbled roughly 25% on Tuesday.

The chart shows daily price swings in Canton Network’s CC token in candlestick format.

The price has dropped to the lowest level since January, penetrating the support established in March at around 13.5 cents. This breakdown shifts focus to the next support of around 10 cents, the low hit in January.

A support is a price level that had previously represented a return of demand after a decline, paving the way for a bounce higher. Dropping through such a level, therefore, represents a weakening of demand.