Bitcoin’s recent stability hasn’t been enough to spark a broader altcoin rally

While bitcoin BTC$63,399.37 and ether (ETH) are under pressure, their prices remain above their respective 50-day averages, a bullish sign. The broader market isn’t so lucky.

The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is widely tracked as a near-term trend gauge. Price breaks above that level are taken as a sign that bullish momentum is building. Right now, only 29 of the top 100 coins, including the two largest, are trading above their respective 50-day averages. So the breadth remains decisively bearish.

It looks even worse when compared with the Nasdaq 100 breadth. As of Monday, 47 stocks from the index traded above their 50-day SMAs.

This shows that the stability seen since the BTC selloff stalled below $58,000 on June 1 has yet to spill over into the wider crypto market. But there is hope. Ether, the bellwether of altcoins, has recently outperformed bitcoin, raising hopes that soon other coins could catch a strong bid.

A lot depends on the Fed’s interest-rate decision due Wednesday and the cues (if any, given Chair Kevin Warsh’s reticence to provide forward guidance) about the interest-rate trajectory.

“With a September hike now fully priced in by futures, we think that the bar for a hawkish surprise that meaningfully boosts the dollar is high,” said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury.

It also means the bar for a hawkish surprise that could drive BTC lower is high. BTC and the Dollar Index (DXY) are inversely correlated. Analysts at Marex said the U.S. core PCE inflation and GDP data due later this week could also breed volatility, especially now the Clarity Act progress has been delayed.

“The one crypto-specific prop just fell away, the Senate shelved the CLARITY Act to prioritize a Russia sanctions bill, so a vote is unlikely before the final days ahead of the August recess. The catalyst meant to unlock institutional buying is parked,” they said in an email. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• U.S. Senate puts off crypto Clarity Act for now as it focuses limited bandwidth elsewhere (CoinDesk): The U.S. Senate shelved the crypto Digital Asset Market Clarity Act for the moment to prioritize bills on Russian sanctions and federal nominations.
• Inside the CME and CFTC’s battle over onchain perpetual futures (CoinDesk): CME Group sued the ​Commodity Futures Trading Commission last month, challenging its decision to let ‌Kalshi and Coinbase list crypto perps. They now await a key federal court ruling that could influence how the U.S. approaches this rapidly growing sector.
• Oil touches over one-week low as pause in attacks brings hope of U.S. and Iran deal (Reuters): Oil prices extended losses on Tuesday, hitting their lowest levels in more than a week, as expectations of a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict grew. Brent crude futures dropped to $85.83 and West Texas Intermediate crude to $80.63
• World shares are mixed, while South Korea’s Kospi sinks nearly 11% on heavy selling of chipmakers (AP): South Korea’s Kospi index plunged nearly 11% on heavy selling of computer-chip makers’ stocks that have been battered recently by waves of fears that the boom in AI may turn out to be a bubble. European shares rose and U.S. equity futures were mixed.

The MOVE Index, the equivalent of the VIX for bonds, represents implied or expected volatility over four weeks and is derived from 30-day options on U.S. Treasury securities.

The index recently jumped to 77 points from 65 points. A continued rise could pose a headwind for risk assets.

That’s because U.S. Treasury notes underpin global finance and increased volatility in these markets often causes financial tightening, disincentivizing risk-taking.