Here are the possible outcomes for Clarity right now

The fate of the crypto market structure legislation is in a precarious place as the clock ticks down to the Senate’s summer recess.

The U.S. Senate has not yet indicated whether it will work on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, with just two days left in session, and there is no official word on whether or when the legislative body might vote on the bill.

It’s possible the Senate can take up the measure after it returns to Washington, D.C. in September, but there are limited working days before the Senate breaks again for the final stretch of the 2026 midterm campaign. It’s possible the Senate will stay past its scheduled session end date of August 7 and work through next week, theoretically giving it time to hold a procedural vote on Clarity, if not run through the whole process to get the bill to the House of Representatives. It’s also just as possible that the window has closed for Clarity in 2026.

At this point, the fate of the Clarity Act is up to a number of factors, both tied to the bill itself and as part of the Senate’s broader work.

Some details of the Clarity Act itself are still being negotiated. Provisions addressing illicit finance and agriculture issues are still under discussion, a legislative staffer told CoinDesk on Wednesday, not to mention the ethics provision aiming to block senior government officials like President Donald Trump from profiting off of the crypto industry.

The White House is still pondering a proposal on ethics language from Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego, which the senators sent to the White House last week. If the White House accepts the proposal, or has feedback on it, that could move the needle for Democrats on the vote.

Tillis told reporters on Wednesday that the White House had begun to engage with the proposal, Punchbowl News’ Brendan Pedersen reported.

Outside of the Clarity Act, the Senate is currently grappling with the nomination of Todd Blanche to become the next Attorney General, a continuing resolution to fund the federal government, a Russia sanctions bill and possibly a college sports bill.

If the Senate does leave town on Friday, then Wednesday night is essentially the final moment where Majority Leader John Thune can file for cloture, given that the Senate needs to let the motion ripen for a full day before it can take a first procedural vote. However, Thune can also announce that the Senate will continue working into the weekend or until next week on Thursday, which would give the Senate more time for Clarity.

In other words, no news on cloture on Wednesday night might just be no news.

In one scenario, Majority Leader John Thune files cloture on Wednesday night, gets through all of the Senate’s other priorities by Friday, holds the first procedural vote on Friday night and then everyone goes back to their districts to meet their constituents and campaign for reelection.

In another, the Senate can break on Friday, Aug. 7, without taking any further steps on the Clarity Act.

In that scenario, the Senate could still return in September and take up the Clarity Act once more. The Senate will also have to deal with funding the government and other issues at that time, and there are just 14 working days when the Senate is in session in September and October. This means it would likely be difficult to get the Clarity Act through, short of Senators agreeing to push it through. It’s certainly possible it can get through Clarity in that time period, however.

The legislative staffer told CoinDesk that if the outstanding issues are sorted through, the bill would easily have a chance at passage in September.

Alternatively, the Senate could extend its working session through the weekend or into next week to address outstanding issues, which may give it enough time to at least get a first procedural vote on Clarity.

It is increasingly looking like the Senate will stay for a few more days, given that Todd Blanche’s nomination is still pending.

This would require Majority Leader Thune to notice a motion to proceed, wait a full day and then secure 60 votes on the second day after he notices the motion. Thune did file cloture on the college sports bill spearheaded by Senator Ted Cruz, but he has not yet invoked cloture on it, meaning he could still file cloture on Clarity with enough time to move through a vote, an industry source said.

If this vote succeeds, the Senate will break, but will be back in September, with a very excited crypto industry hoping for relatively smooth passage on the final set of votes.

If this vote fails, Clarity probably won’t go anywhere until after the election. That comes with its own set of possible outcomes, depending on whether the House or Senate flips and what the margins for each party are.