Here’s why bitcoin bulls should take a closer look at interest rates

Complicating matters further is the resurgence of energy prices. Bitcoin’s recent bounce from $58,000 to $66,000 has been respectable, yet its ratio relative to WTI crude oil futures has declined. This confirms that oil is outperforming even the most aggressive risk assets, a hint that a new wave of cost-push inflation may be loading into the system.

The takeaway: Engineering a sustained bull run may be far more difficult than market participants perceive. If oil continues its ascent, we may see a sharp “snap adjustment,” with nominal prices falling rapidly, consistent with their yield-adjusted valuations. Stay alert.

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Crypto Clarity Act still at mercy of ethics section as Democrats balk at Trump deal (CoinDesk): U.S. Senate Democrats are said to be unhappy with some of the crypto market structure bill’s most contentious section: the language that will ban government officials from significant crypto ties.
• Movement Labs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy months after token scandal (CoinDesk): Movement Labs filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In the filing, the company said it had fewer than 1,000 creditors, between $100,000 and $500,000 in assets and more than $1 million in liabilities.
• Balance stablecoin collapses 99% after $1 million exploit drains its bitcoin vaults (CoinDesk): Balance Coin, a low-circulation algorithmic stablecoin meant to hold a dollar peg, crashed more than 99% after an attacker exploited a pricing flaw, erasing nearly all of its roughly $3.5 million in nominal value. The attacker took $912,000.
• Oil prices jump 4% as Rubio says Iran ‘not serious’ about peace talks (CNBC): Oil prices rose 4% following the 11th consecutive round of U.S. strikes against Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Strait of Hormuz remains a sticking point between the two sides.

The chart in the left pane shows bitcoin’s price adjusted for the 10-year Treasury yield. The ratio peaked in 2021, and the 2025 bull market in BTC fell short of challenging that high. Nasdaq displays a similar pattern.

Both suggest that bull runs may be more measured unless interest rates collapse.

Separately, the BTC-WTI crude oil ratio has come off in the past few days, a sign that energy is outpacing gains in digital risk assets. This could be a warning of another inflation wave ahead.