Live updates: An AI credit bubble could set up bitcoin’s path to $1 million, says Arthur Hayes

SpaceX (SPCX) is adding to last night’s post-earnings losses, now lower by 11% to $125 about two hours prior to the market open.

“We now project capex of nearly $200 billion in both 2027 & 2028, which further pressures free cash flow in 2027, a trend we see across the hyperscalers,” said JPMorgan, lifting its price target to $240 from $225.

“We recognize the upcoming lock-up expiration on Thursday, August 6 of 911.5 million shares, potentially increasing the current float of 639 million shares by 143%, but we also believe there has already been significant pre-positioning ahead of this first expiration, the largest of many over the next several months.”

Crypto exchange Bitfinex has said that bitcoin’s (BTC) bullish case rests on the real or inflation-adjusted yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note.

“The 10-year real yield has not stayed above 2.5% since before Bitcoin existed, so there is no price history above that line. It is now at 2.41%, nine basis points below,” the exchange said on X.

“Hold above 2.5%, and the macro tailwind is gone,” it added.

Bond yields have risen sharply since the onset of the Iran war in late February, weakening the case for risk-taking in financial markets. Yet, stocks have continued to hit new record highs, leaving bitcoin and gold far behind.

Arthur Hayes thinks everyone has the AI trade filed under the wrong category.

In a new essay, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX and crypto fund Maelstrom said the ongoing infrastructure buildout is a credit story like 2008, not an earnings story like the 2000 dot-com bust.

Hyperscalers, or computing frms borrow against their massive data centers, are stuffed with chips that depreciate fast, and lenders bankroll it believing they are financing technology when the underlying asset is closer to real estate.

The break comes when announced capex stops accelerating, which he pegs for late 2027 into 2028. Credit keeps flowing well past that point, the way mortgage lending did into 2007, until the weakest AI debt cracks and drags down whoever is over-levered on it.

Hayes expects Washington and Beijing to backstop the wreckage in the name of national security, printing more than they did in 2008, and that flood of liquidity is what bottoms bitcoin and drives it toward $1 million.

The nearer-term call is that the recent AI selloff, Korea’s leveraged unwind included, is a dip inside a bull market.

Bitcoin traded near $64,200 on Wednesday, flat on the week and still stuck in the range it has held since May.