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Oil quickly plunged, but then reversed higher, on conflicting reports about the state of the war in Iran.
By Jamie Crawley, James Van Straten, and Stephen Alpher|Edited by Stephen Alpher
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The half-life of these Iran peace deal reports can be measured in minutes.
Oil has gained back about $2 of its earlier loss on a report of a denial of an earlier report of major progress on a compromise to end the war in Iran.
WTI crude is now at $97.60 per barrel, down just 1% on the day.
The Nasdaq has returned to flat on the session, and bitcoin has retreated about 1% from its session high, now trading back to $82,300.
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Qatar and Pakistan have reportedly presented a proposal to end the war in Iran, and gotten preliminary U.S. and Iranian approval.
It’s only a report for now, but the news was enough to send oil tumbling another $3 per barrel.
At one point earlier today, WTI crude was trading above $101 per barrel, but it’s now down 3% for the session at $95.50.
The Nasdaq is responding, reversing from an opening loss near 1% to a gain of 0.6%.
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Down alongside stocks early, bitcoin BTC$81,462.69 has quickly risen back to $83,000 as U.S. stocks also turn positive.
Perhaps helping is a reversal in oil prices. WTI crude oil had jumped above $101 per barrel at one point overnight, but is now modestly lower on the session at $98.15.
U.S. bond yields are also lower, the 10-year Treasury down 3.7 basis points at 5.10%.
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U.S. pending home sales tumbled 7.3% in September, according to the NAR. That was far worse than forecasts for just a 0.5% slump.
On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales fell 11.3%. The actual read of 66.0 is the weakest print in the 25-year history of the pending home sales gauge.
“Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates,” said the NAR’s Lawrence Yun. “Although job growth and income gains can support home purchases, housing affordability is more affected by changes in mortgage rates.”
A government report earlier this morning showed a steep decline in new home sales, and a report yesterday from the NAHB showed builder confidence falling to a 14-year low.
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The economic pressure on Iran is intensifying, said U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a Tuesday morning appearance. The currency has collapsed, and panic is beginning to spread. The country’s economy, he said, “will go non-linear at some point.”
As for the U.S., Bessent contended that, aside from the energy price spike, most things are going well.
Of that energy spike, oil prices have fallen about $2 per barrel from their overnight highs but remain elevated, with WTI crude for December delivery at $98.40 per barrel.
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Following its IPO, Strive’s ASST$26.89 junior high-yielding preferred security SATS is open for trade on the Nasdaq.
Shares are trading at $85.00 versus the IPO price of $90. At $85, the 15% coupon carries an effective yield of more than 17%.
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More evidence that higher interest rates are biting:
Housing starts in September fell 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.221 million, according to just-released government data. That’s well below economist forecasts of 1.3 million. August starts were 1.288 million.
Building permits fell to 1.4 million from 1.403 million, and slightly above forecasts for 1.39 million.
Just yesterday, the NAHB reported that homebuilder confidence tumbled to its weakest level since 2012.
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French bond spreads are blowing out anew on Tuesday, with that country’s 10-year OAT yield rising 3.4 basis points to 4.956% and the German 10-year Bund yield sliding 3 basis points to 3.43%.
This brings the spread between the two core EMU members back to about a cycle high of 153 basis points, the widest level since the continent’s debt crisis in 2011.
ECB member Olli Rehn, testifying Tuesday in Finland’s parliament, conceded that French bond spreads have widened “somewhat.”
“All euro-area countries must bring their public deficits under control and thereby ensure their debt sustainability,” said Rehn. “This goes just as much for France as it does for Finland.”
France’s CAC 40 is leading European stocks lower, down 0.8% today, and off about 12% since peaking two months ago.
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Crypto exchange Bitget said it plans to acquire GMO-Z, a licensed cryptocurrency exchange and brokerage based in Bangkok, for an undisclosed amount as it expands in Southeast Asia.
The deal would take place through BTGT Management, a company in which Bitget holds an interest.
GMO Internet, its subsidiary GMO-Z and other shareholders would transfer their entire holdings in the exchange to BTGT Management or its designated entity at completion.
Bitget plans to introduce its trading platform to Thai users once the acquisition closes. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and other conditions.
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Switzerland’s financial regulator, FINMA, said it approved a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) for the first time.
FINMA did not disclose the issuer of the ETF.
Switzerland was the first jurisdiction to approve cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs). Regulation preventing ETFs from holding only a single asset meant such funds could not be defined as such and so were listed under the umbrella “ETP” designation.
FINMA has now approved an exemption to allow ETFs holding only bitcoin reflecting its “long trading history and particularly high trading volume compared with other cryptocurrencies.”
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Market jitters persist as the AI selloff deepens. South Korea’s KOSPI fell almost 4%, accompanied by one of the weakest IPO debuts in the country’s history, with data centre company Elice tumbling around 30%.
The weakness carried into U.S. pre-market trading, with CoreWeave (CRWV) down 4%, Cipher Digital CIFR$8.9230 falling 2% and IREN IREN$26.88 losing 3%. The Invesco QQQ ETF also traded lower, reflecting broader pressure on technology stocks.
Bitcoin edged lower over the past 24 hours but held above $81,000, while gold slipped almost 1% to just above $4,110 an ounce. Brent and WTI crude oil each climbed a further 2%.
Long-dated U.S. Treasuries appear to be attracting defensive flows, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rising 0.5%.
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Sep 24, 2026
Why it matters:
Diversified RWA stablecoins sustain 5-7% yield from real credit as crypto funding compresses to ~4%. GENIUS pushes yield off-chain; TAM grows to $4B in 3 years.