Live updates: Bitcoin flatlines near $64,000 ahead of Friday’s jobs report

MARA Holdings (MARA) missed earnings estimates as large unrealized losses on its bitcoin (BTC) holdings overshadowed modest growth in mining output in the second quarter.

Revenue came in at $174.9 million, below the $204 million consensus estimate, while it posted a net loss of $611 million. The company mined 2,422 BTC during the quarter, up 3% from a year ago, and increased its energized hashrate 22% to 70.3 EH/s.

Bitcoin held fell 29% from year-ago levels to 35,577 BTC.

Shares traded flat near around $10.60 following the report, after they slipped 5% during the regular session ahead of the earnings.

Markets are at an important point, with investors trying to work out whether inflation will keep slowing or stay stubbornly high. According to Oxford Economics, this week’s economic data, especially Friday’s U.S. jobs report, could influence expectations for interest rates and what the Federal Reserve does next.

Bond yields continue to be relatively high due to the U.S. government’s borrowing, keeping long-term borrowing costs elevated, even though markets are expecting fewer interest rate increases from the Fed than they were a few weeks ago. Investors will also be listening closely to comments from Fed officials for clues about how committed they are to bringing inflation back to target.

The FT reported this morning that Fed chair Kevin Warsh was prepared to raise interest rates in September if inflation fails to ease over the coming weeks and bond markets continue to come under pressure.

On a longer-term perspective, many economists expect inflation to continue easing as price increases for services slow, the effects of tariffs fade and supply chains improve. If that happens, the Fed may be able to leave interest rates unchanged for an extended period, creating a more stable environment for stocks, bonds and the wider economy, even if markets remain choppy in the short term, Oxford Economics said.

It’s almost as if markets are a discounting mechanism.

In what shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, SpaceX (SPCX) is rallying on the day nearly 1 billion shares become available to sell. At $112.35 a bit more than two hours into the trading day, the stock is higher by almost 4%.

In the days and weeks leading up to today’s share unlock, the stock had plunged, dropping more than 30% over the past month and more than 50% from its mid-June record high.

In conjunction with Tesla, SpaceX today announced that the location of their massive chip-building Terafab will be in Grimes County, Texas. The initial investment is expected to be $16.8 billion, but the final amount is likely to be several multiples of that amount.

“The combined SpaceX and Tesla demand for chips is expected to be in excess of 1 terawatt (TW) of compute, which is significantly larger than the current global supply,” said the companies.

U.S. initial jobless claims edged up by 1,000 to 199,000 last week. Economist forecasts had been for 202,000.

The four-week average dipped to 198,750 from 203,250. Claims around 200,000 or lower are associated with a very strong labor market.

The main event, of course, comes tomorrow, when the government releases its Nonfarm Payrolls report for July. Those numbers have recently been somewhat weaker than suggested by jobless claims.

Forecasts call for 80,000 jobs to be added in July, up from 57,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.

SpaceX rose 3.85% to $112.44 in Thursday premarket, clawing back part of Wednesday’s 13.6% drop to $108.27, per MarketWatch data.

The move comes as the stock’s first lockup expires today, freeing up to 911.5 million insider shares, worth over $100 billion, to trade for the first time.

SPCX is already down more than 50% from its $225 June peak and below its $135 IPO price, so much of the unlock risk was sold in advance rather than waiting for the date.

The test now isn’t whether insiders sell, but whether the market absorbs it.

The bill that would settle who regulates crypto in Washington is down to its final two days before the Senate breaks, and the market has stopped waiting on it, says Joel Kruger, markets strategist at LMAX Group.

The CLARITY Act, which would split oversight of digital assets between the SEC and CFTC and set rules for exchanges, issuers and some DeFi, is unlikely to clear the Senate before the August 7 recess, Kruger said, and that outcome is largely priced in.

The betting backs him up, with Polymarket cutting the odds of 2026 passage to 28% from an 82% peak.

The regulatory backdrop is improving with or without the bill, Kruger said. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has signaled he’ll provide clarity through agency guidance, an alternative path to a workable framework even if Congress runs out of clock.

Kruger flags $67,300 in bitcoin and $2,000 in ether as the resistance levels that matter.

A convincing break above either would be the sign the market is shifting into a more meaningful upside phase, and until then the consolidation holds.

Crypto exchange Coinbase is rolling out stock trading for its U.K. users, letting them buy, sell and manage select U.S. equities in the same app as their crypto holdings.

Trading is available 24/5 with no commission and fractional shares. The latter allows investors to start with as little as 1 pound ($1.35). Traders can fund their accounts with sterling or USDC.

“As of August 6, 2026 eligible UK users will progressively gain access to select US equities,” the Nasdaq-listed exchange said in the official announcement.

Bitcoin hovered near $64,830 on Thursday, up 0.8% over 24 hours and 1.3% on the week, while trading inside a narrow band, CoinDesk data show. Ether rose 2.1%, but most other majors barely moved, leaving the market less in rally mode than in wait-and-see mode.

The bid under bitcoin is coming from macro hopes rather than fresh crypto demand. President Donald Trump pointed to strong employment, better manufacturing data and cooling inflation, while also raising the possibility of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

A reopening would likely pressure oil lower, easing inflation worries and giving Treasury yields and the dollar room to fall. That is the setup risk assets want, and bitcoin is trading like some of it may arrive.

The problem is that the trade still depends on several steps lining up. Lower oil has to feed into lower inflation expectations. Lower inflation expectations have to pull down real yields and the dollar.

Its roughly 63% correlation with the S&P 500 also means equity sentiment may matter more than crypto-native flows in the near term. A calmer Middle East backdrop helps risk appetite, but it can also reduce the safe-haven demand that supported bitcoin earlier in the summer.

The levels to watch are real yields and the dollar. If both fall alongside oil, bitcoin has a cleaner path above the top of its recent range. If yields stay firm, the macro case remains theoretical and bitcoin likely stays pinned near $65,000.