Live updates: Bitcoin rises above $61,000 as the red hot semiconductor trade starts to fade

The macro headwinds that drove bitcoin’s worst ETF month on record are fading, Can-Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum Bank, told CoinDesk in emailed comments.

Oil has fallen back below pre-war levels as the Strait of Hormuz reopened faster than expected and Gulf supply recovered, removing the energy-driven inflation impulse that pushed the Fed hawkish through June. Warsh’s July 1 comments acknowledging that inflation risks have come down read as a tonal shift from the June dot plot, and a softening labor market points the same way.

Together, Köymen says, those factors argue for rate hike probabilities to reprice lower.

Crypto’s own signals are moving in the same direction. Long-term holders have returned to net accumulation and whales have been building aggressively into weakness, a cohort Köymen noted has historically timed entries better than the newer, non-native investors accessing bitcoin through ETFs.

With bitcoin trading below its 200-day moving average and beneath the previous cycle’s high, he sees the entry point as relatively attractive.

Sygnum expects ETF outflows to turn positive in July, though summer liquidity means any inflows will likely be modest rather than a flood.

A July 17 congressional hearing on the CLARITY Act, which would establish clearer rules for crypto assets, is a separate watch item. A surprise push toward passage could act as an additional catalyst.

Have we seen the first signs of capital rotating back into bitcoin from memory and semiconductor stocks?

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), which have led the surge in semiconductor and memory stocks throughout 2026, have largely left bitcoin and the broader crypto market sidelined.

That may now be starting to change.

The Roundhill Memory ETF has fallen roughly 25% from its June 22 all time high, while SMH is down around 12%. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $58,000 on July 1 before rebounding above $61,000 by July 3.

While bitcoin’s price has bounced from 21-month lows, it still remains below the pivotal 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a sign that a full-blown bull reversal is not yet confirmed.

As of this writing, the leading cryptocurrency is changing hands near $61,700, marking a notable recovery from the 21-month lows under $58,000 reached earlier this week. The recovery is accompanied by renewed demand for spot ETFs, suggesting potential continuation to the upside.

However, prices still remain below the 200-week SMA, currently at $62,660.

This line has been widely cited as major support since February and served as a strong accumulation zone where bear markets have historically tended to bottom. A decisive breakout above it would confirm the bullish narrative and could draw in more buyers.

Roughly 10.83 million BTC are currently held at a loss, meaning their holders paid more than today’s price, against 9.22 million still in profit, according to Glassnode data. It is the first time loss-making supply has overtaken profitable supply since the current cycle began and reflects how deep the correction from bitcoin’s $109,000 January peak has cut.

Historically, these crossovers have landed near periods of peak financial stress and capitulation among newer buyers. They have also marked the point at which coins migrate from weaker hands to stronger ones, since only holders with high conviction tend to sit on losses rather than sell. Long-term holder accumulation and rising wallet-cohort balances across several size brackets have run alongside this latest deterioration in profitability.

Bitcoin traded at $61,361 on Thursday, up 0.7% on the day and 2.5% on the week, still roughly 51% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. Ether added 4.2% to $1,702, and Solana led the majors at 18.6% on the week to $80.44, with volume running above $3.6 billion.

Whether the supply crossover marks a bottom depends on what follows. In 2018-19 and 2022, similar readings preceded months of basing before a sustained recovery. The chart does not resolve on its own. ETF flows returning and macro pressure easing are what convert the accumulation signal into a price signal.

CORRECT (07:45 UTC): Corrects all-time high in third paragraph.