Live updates: BTC holding just above $64,000 ahead of Friday’s key jobs data

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Trump’s comments on jobs, inflation and a possible Strait of Hormuz deal have helped risk sentiment, but bitcoin’s next move depends on whether lower oil actually pulls Treasury yields and the dollar down.

By Shaurya Malwa and Omkar Godbole

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SoftBank posted a smaller-than-feared 18% drop in quarterly net income to ¥347.3 billion ($2.3 billion), more than double the ¥166 billion analysts expected, carried by a ¥1.3 trillion ($8.5 billion) gain on its Intel stake.

Intel rose 216% in the June quarter, and SoftBank’s $2 billion bet at $23 a share last year did the heavy lifting while its OpenAI position sat flat on valuation.

The read for crypto is the same AI-capital signal that has set the tape all quarter.

SoftBank is a gauge of whether the money pouring into AI is generating returns, and a quarter rescued by a single chip bet says the sector is still minting gains, just concentrated and lumpy. Bitcoin has traded as a high-beta proxy for that risk appetite for months, up when the AI trade works and down when it wobbles.

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Crypto exchange Coinbase is rolling out stock trading for its U.K. users, letting them buy, sell and manage select U.S. equities in the same app as their crypto holdings.

Trading is available 24/5 with no commission and fractional shares. The latter allows investors to start with as little as 1 pound ($1.35). Traders can fund their accounts with sterling or USDC.

“As of August 6, 2026 eligible UK users will progressively gain access to select US equities,” the Nasdaq-listed exchange said in the official announcement.

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The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have registered a net inflow of $626 million in three days. That puts these funds on track to register their best weekly performance since early May, according to data source SoSoValue.

Analysts say the pace of inflows needs to sustain for bitcoin to chart a meaningful rally.

“Several consecutive days of inflows will be needed to confirm a sustained recovery in institutional demand,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus.com, said in an email.

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Bitcoin hovered near $64,830 on Thursday, up 0.8% over 24 hours and 1.3% on the week, while trading inside a narrow band, CoinDesk data show. Ether rose 2.1%, but most other majors barely moved, leaving the market less in rally mode than in wait-and-see mode.

The bid under bitcoin is coming from macro hopes rather than fresh crypto demand. President Donald Trump pointed to strong employment, better manufacturing data and cooling inflation, while also raising the possibility of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

A reopening would likely pressure oil lower, easing inflation worries and giving Treasury yields and the dollar room to fall. That is the setup risk assets want, and bitcoin is trading like some of it may arrive.

The problem is that the trade still depends on several steps lining up. Lower oil has to feed into lower inflation expectations. Lower inflation expectations have to pull down real yields and the dollar.

Its roughly 63% correlation with the S&P 500 also means equity sentiment may matter more than crypto-native flows in the near term. A calmer Middle East backdrop helps risk appetite, but it can also reduce the safe-haven demand that supported bitcoin earlier in the summer.

The levels to watch are real yields and the dollar. If both fall alongside oil, bitcoin has a cleaner path above the top of its recent range. If yields stay firm, the macro case remains theoretical and bitcoin likely stays pinned near $65,000.