The ‘crack’ in the energy market is wider than ever. Bitcoin might feel it.

On Monday, CoinDesk reported that Goldman Sachs was downplaying the chance of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September, citing slower inflation and echoing dovish expectations among traders, a potential tailwind for bitcoin BTC$64,177.56.

New data is muddying that outlook.

The first detail is the difference between the price of diesel and the cost of the crude oil used to produce it. The gap, known as the “crack” has surged to a record $102.20 a barrel.

The wars in Iran and Ukraine are disrupting global oil supply and driving the crack wider just as seasonal demand peaks because farmers need fuel to run tractors and harvest crops. That has real implications for inflation on Main Street.

“Food is about to get a lot more expensive,” the Hormuz Letter, a widely tracked X account covering Middle East and commodities news, said. “Agriculture runs on diesel equipment and shipping, heating oil is next ahead of winter, and everything moved by truck or ship will drive inflation higher.”

Well-known macro writer Mike “Mish” Shedlock put it more bluntly: “Record high crack spreads. Serious economic ramifications.”

The takeaway is that even as oil prices retreat from their second-quarter highs, oil products are getting more expensive. The broader market, including BTC, may not have fully priced that in yet.

A second detail is that oil itself may be due for a bounce. Crude has emerged from a four-month-long bearish trend (check the Daily Signal), and there’s still disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Those two effects, combined with concerns about government debt levels, continue to push yields on U.S. Treasuries and other advanced-economy bonds higher. That raises the opportunity cost of holding other assets and may cap bitcoin’s gains, a dynamic CoinDesk recently flagged.

One factor is still working in bitcoin’s favor, at least for now: the U.S. currency. The Dollar Index fell to a two-and-a-half-month low of 99.29 on Monday and broke down out of a bullish trendline, a technical signal pointing to further losses ahead. A weaker dollar has historically been a supportive backdrop for bitcoin.

Taken together, it’s a genuinely mixed tape that leaves bitcoin trading in the middle of several narratives pulling in opposite directions. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Global bond yields hit multi-decade highs as governments pay the price for U.S.-Iran stalemate (CNBC): A global selloff of government bonds gripped markets Tuesday, sending borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, as hopes for an end to hostilities in the Middle East rapidly faded.
• The bitcoin price level where leveraged bulls could get whacked (CoinDesk): For bitcoin traders holding bullish futures bets, $57,000 is a key level because that’s where their bets could be at risk.
• XRP sinks below $1 for first time since 2024 even as Korean bank adopts Ripple Payments (CoinDesk): XRP fell below its widely watched $1 level to 98 cents Tuesday morning in Asia. That’s the lowest price since November 2024. The slide came as Ripple announced its third Korean partnership of the year.

The chart shows daily swings in WTI crude oil in candlestick format.

Prices have risen past the trendline drawn off the April high. That trendline represents the four-month downtrend.

The breakout, therefore, means the downtrend has ended and prices could rise again. A sustained breakout could revive inflation fears, capping gains in bitcoin.