Clarity Act’s odds of passing plunge as Republicans reject Democrats’ counter-proposal

The Clarity Act’s chances of clearing a key Senate hurdle faded Tuesday as Republicans rejected a counteroffer from Democrats, leaving the two sides far apart just hours before a pivotal procedural vote.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), one of the bill’s leading Republican negotiators, said the Democratic proposal offered little movement from positions lawmakers held before the August recess.

“Senate Democrats’ counter offer looks identical to their opening position at the start of recess,” Lummis said in a statement shared with CoinDesk. “Republicans have moved substantially on every front, including agreeing to nearly all of the Tillis-Gallego ethics framework, while Democrats have not budged an inch.”

“If Democrats are serious about reaching a deal, they need to actually start negotiating instead of resubmitting the same demands and calling it progress,” she added.

Polymarket bettors now put the chance of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 at just 14% Tuesday morning, down from around 30% roughly 24 hours earlier.

The pullback is also showing up on Kalshi, where traders are increasingly pushing any breakthrough further into the future. The contract for a crypto market structure bill becoming law before Oct. 1, 2027, fell to 36% Tuesday, down from around 53% Monday morning.

For comparison, traders on Monday had put the chances of passage before July 1, 2027, at 53%. By Tuesday, the longer timeline was looking more plausible: Kalshi traders gave the bill, or another qualifying crypto market structure measure, a 51% chance of becoming law only by Jan. 1, 2028.

The reversal comes after prediction markets surged on Monday on hopes that Republican concessions could finally break the months-long stalemate. That optimism quickly faded as banking groups pressed lawmakers to tighten restrictions around stablecoin interest and rewards, while a bipartisan group of state attorneys general warned the legislation could weaken states’ ability to police crypto-related fraud.

Republicans released what they called their final draft over the weekend after making more than 100 changes requested by Democrats, including concessions on ethics provisions. The Senate is scheduled to vote Tuesday afternoon on whether to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed, which requires 60 votes.